Eredivisie
Round 11 Sunday, 1 November 2026
FT
GroningenHomeWLDLL
2:3Half-time 2:2
Sparta RotterdamAwayDWLDW552124
Groningen winDrawSparta Rotterdam win
Eredivisie
Round 11 Sunday, 1 November 2026
FT
GroningenHomeWLDLLSparta RotterdamAwayDWLDW- Kick-off Sun 1 Nov
- Expected goals
- 3.65 2.22 : 1.43
- Favourite
- 55% Groningen
- Over 2.5 goals
- 70% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 69% model chance
- Prices compared
- 6 in the odds table
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam betting odds by bookmaker
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.78 | 4.28 | 4.08 | 1.42 | 2.76 | 1.42 | 2.66 | Bet |
 22Bet | 1.77 | 4.20 | 4.00 | 1.45 | 2.75 | 1.48 | 2.68 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 1.69 | 4.10 | 4.20 | 1.45 | 2.60 | 1.44 | 2.62 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 1.77 | 4.20 | 4.00 | 1.45 | 2.75 | 1.48 | 2.68 | Bet |
 Melbet | 1.77 | 4.20 | 4.00 | 1.45 | 2.75 | 1.48 | 2.68 | Bet |
 Stake | 1.72 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 1.42 | 2.70 | 1.46 | 2.50 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Groningen to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best Groningen price at 1.78, 1xBet lead the draw at 4.28 and BC.Game have Sparta Rotterdam longest at 4.20.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 96.8%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.45 (Melbet) and under 2.5 2.76 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.48 (Melbet) and no 2.68 (Melbet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
55%
Our prediction
Groningen to win
Double chanceGroningen or Sparta Rotterdam (no draw)
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
BTTSBoth teams to score
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
88% chance1.14fairWon
ScorelineCorrect score 2-1
9% chance10.87fairLost
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Groningen, full-time Groningen
36% chance2.79fairLost
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam odds movement
Groningen win1.78-0.02
Draw4.28-0.10
Sparta Rotterdam win4.20-0.09
Over 2.5 goals1.45unchanged
Under 2.5 goals2.76-0.13
Best price in the comparison at each refresh since the match was first priced on 1 Nov, 23:58 UTC. A shortening price means money has come for that outcome.
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam prediction
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam prediction, who wins and at what price
Groningen are a narrow favourite in the Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam prediction, rated 55% to win this Eredivisie match on Sunday, 1 November 2026. Sparta Rotterdam sit at 24% and the draw at 21%.
Expected goals are 2.22 for Groningen and 1.43 for Sparta Rotterdam, a total of 3.65, which puts over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams to score at 69%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
The pick for Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam is groningen to win, a 55% chance. The best price in our comparison is 1.78 at 1xBet, which implies 56%, so the model sits 1 points below the market.
Groningen or Sparta Rotterdam (no draw) is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 79% chance, priced 1.24.
The draw sits at only 21%, so the 12 double chance and draw no bet keep more of the price than usual.
Form check: Groningen have won 1 of their last 5 with 11 scored and 13 conceded, Sparta Rotterdam 2 of 5 scoring 12 and conceding 11.
Goals forecast for Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 88%, over 2.5 at 70%, over 3.5 at 50%; under 2.5 is 30% and under 3.5 is 51%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 70%; Melbet pay 1.45.
BTTS yes stands at 69%. Groningen score in 89% of simulations against a 11% clean sheet for Sparta Rotterdam; Sparta Rotterdam score in 76% while Groningen shut them out 24% of the time.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 69%.
The most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9.2%, followed by 1-1 (8.3%) and 3-1 (6.8%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 9.2% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Groningen, full-time Groningen is the top combination at 36%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 81%.
Every market for Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 55% / 21% / 24% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Groningen to win55%1.78
Draw21%4.28
Sparta Rotterdam to win24%4.20
Groningen, draw no bet70%fair 1.43
Sparta Rotterdam, draw no bet30%fair 3.30
Double chance
Groningen or draw76%1.26
Sparta Rotterdam or draw45%2.10
Groningen or Sparta Rotterdam (no draw)79%1.24
Goals
Over 0.5 goals97%fair 1.03
Over 1.5 goals88%fair 1.14
Over 2.5 goals70%1.45
Over 3.5 goals50%fair 2.02
Over 4.5 goals30%fair 3.30
Under 1.5 goals12%fair 8.26
Under 2.5 goals30%2.76
Under 3.5 goals51%fair 1.98
BTTS
Both teams to score69%1.48
Not both teams to score31%2.68
Halves
First-half goal81%fair 1.24
Over 1.5 first-half goals49%fair 2.04
Second-half goal87%fair 1.15
Team goals
Groningen to score89%fair 1.12
Sparta Rotterdam to score76%fair 1.31
Groningen clean sheet24%fair 4.18
Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet11%fair 9.17
Groningen to win to nil22%fair 4.55
Sparta Rotterdam to win to nil10%fair 10.00
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
2-19.2%
1-18.3%
3-16.8%
2-26.5%
2-06.4%
1-25.9%
Half-time / full-time
Groningen / Groningen35.8%
Draw / Groningen15.7%
Sparta Rotterdam / Sparta Rotterdam14.1%
Draw / Draw10.1%
Draw / Sparta Rotterdam8.1%
Questions about Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam
Groningen or Sparta Rotterdam: which side does the model back?
The model gives Groningen the best chance at 55%, with the draw at 21%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
What scoreline is most likely in Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
2-1 is the most likely scoreline at 9.2%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 70%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 69%. Groningen find the net in 89% of simulated matches and Sparta Rotterdam in 76%.
When is Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam and where is the result shown?
Kick-off is 15:45 UTC on Sunday, 1 November 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.