Eredivisie
Round 9 Sunday, 18 October 2026
FT
GroningenHomeWLDLL
2:5Half-time 0:2
AjaxAwayLWWWW242254
Groningen winDrawAjax win
Eredivisie
Round 9 Sunday, 18 October 2026
FT
GroningenHomeWLDLLAjaxAwayLWWWW- Kick-off Sun 18 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.77 1.50 : 2.27
- Favourite
- 54% Ajax
- Over 2.5 goals
- 72% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 71% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Groningen vs Ajax odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 3.80 | 4.22 | 1.85 | 1.31 | 2.92 | 1.35 | 2.94 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Ajax to win partner prices
The top 1X2 prices for Groningen vs Ajax are 3.80 for Groningen at 1xBet, 4.22 for the draw at 1xBet and 1.85 for Ajax at 1xBet.
The best-price payout across the three results is 96.1%, several points better than any single book offers here.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.31 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.92 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.35 (1xBet) and no 2.94 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
54%
Our prediction
Ajax to win
Double chanceGroningen or Ajax (no draw)
78% chance1.24
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
72% chance1.31
BTTSBoth teams to score
71% chance1.35
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
89% chance1.12fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-2
9% chance11.24fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Ajax, full-time Ajax
36% chance2.81fair
Groningen vs Ajax prediction
Groningen vs Ajax prediction, who wins and at what price
Ajax are a narrow favourite in the Groningen vs Ajax prediction, rated 54% to win this Eredivisie match on Sunday, 18 October 2026. Groningen sit at 24% and the draw at 22%.
Groningen are expected to score 1.50 and Ajax 2.27, so the total line is 3.77 goals; over 2.5 lands at 72% and BTTS at 71%.
One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.
The pick for Groningen vs Ajax is ajax to win, a 54% chance. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.85. That price implies 54%, 0 points under the model figure.
Groningen or Ajax (no draw) is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 78% chance, priced 1.24.
With the draw down at 22%, draw no bet costs little insurance and the 12 line keeps most of the win price.
Groningen average 2.2 goals scored and 2.6 conceded across their last 5, Ajax 2.2 and 1.0 across 5.
Goals forecast for Groningen vs Ajax with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
On the goal lines Groningen vs Ajax reads 89% for over 1.5, 72% for over 2.5 and 52% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 28%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 72%, best priced 1.31 at 1xBet.
BTTS yes stands at 71%. Groningen score in 78% of simulations against a 22% clean sheet for Ajax; Ajax score in 90% while Groningen shut them out 10% of the time.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 71%.
The most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 8.9%, followed by 1-1 (7.8%) and 1-3 (6.7%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 8.9% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Ajax, full-time Ajax leads at 36%. A goal before the break is rated 82%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market for Groningen vs Ajax
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 24% / 22% / 54% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Groningen to win24%3.80
Draw22%4.22
Ajax to win54%1.85
Groningen, draw no bet31%fair 3.24
Ajax, draw no bet69%fair 1.45
Double chance
Groningen or draw46%2.00
Ajax or draw76%1.29
Groningen or Ajax (no draw)78%1.24
Goals
Over 0.5 goals98%fair 1.02
Over 1.5 goals89%fair 1.12
Over 2.5 goals72%1.31
Over 3.5 goals52%fair 1.92
Over 4.5 goals33%fair 3.07
Under 1.5 goals11%fair 9.09
Under 2.5 goals28%2.92
Under 3.5 goals48%fair 2.08
BTTS
Both teams to score71%1.35
Not both teams to score29%2.94
Halves
First-half goal82%fair 1.22
Over 1.5 first-half goals51%fair 1.98
Second-half goal87%fair 1.14
Team goals
Groningen to score78%fair 1.29
Ajax to score90%fair 1.11
Groningen clean sheet10%fair 9.71
Ajax clean sheet22%fair 4.48
Groningen to win to nil10%fair 10.53
Ajax to win to nil21%fair 4.88
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-28.9%
1-17.8%
1-36.7%
2-26.7%
0-25.9%
2-15.9%
Half-time / full-time
Ajax / Ajax35.6%
Draw / Ajax15.4%
Groningen / Groningen14.6%
Draw / Draw9.8%
Draw / Groningen8.2%
Questions about Groningen vs Ajax
Groningen or Ajax: which side does the model back?
The model gives Ajax the best chance at 54%, with the draw at 22%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
Groningen vs Ajax correct score: what does the model say?
1-2 is the most likely scoreline at 8.9%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 72%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Groningen vs Ajax both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 71%. Groningen find the net in 78% of simulated matches and Ajax in 90%.
When is Groningen vs Ajax and where is the result shown?
Kick-off is 14:45 UTC on Sunday, 18 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.