Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar prediction

Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar prediction, who wins and at what price

Ajax are a narrow favourite in the Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar prediction, rated 53% to win this Eredivisie match on Saturday, 31 October 2026. AZ Alkmaar sit at 25% and the draw at 22%.

Expected goals are 2.15 for Ajax and 1.45 for AZ Alkmaar, a total of 3.60, which puts over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams to score at 68%.

Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.

Our main pick is ajax to win at 53%. The best price in our comparison is 1.94 at Melbet, which implies 51%, so the model sits 2 points above the market.

A 3.2% edge on a flat stake is the margin here, so the selection qualifies as value and not only as the likely result.

Ajax or AZ Alkmaar (no draw) is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 78% chance, priced 1.23.

With the draw down at 22%, draw no bet costs little insurance and the 12 line keeps most of the win price.

Over the last 5 matches Ajax stand at 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats; AZ Alkmaar show 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats in 5.

Goals forecast for Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline

Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 87%, over 2.5 at 69%, over 3.5 at 49%; under 2.5 is 31% and under 3.5 is 52%.

The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 69%, best priced 1.53 at Melbet.

Both teams to score is 68%: Ajax find the net in 88% of simulated matches and AZ Alkmaar in 77%. Ajax keep a clean sheet 24% of the time and AZ Alkmaar 12%.

Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 68%.

Three scorelines carry the most weight for Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-1 (8.5%) and 2-2 (6.6%).

With the top scoreline at 9.2%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.

In the half-time / full-time market half-time Ajax, full-time Ajax leads at 34%. A goal before the break is rated 80%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.