Ajax vs Atalanta prediction

Our Ajax vs Atalanta prediction and pick

The Ajax vs Atalanta prediction leans to Ajax: 47% against 29% for Atalanta, with 24% left for the draw, in the Conference League on Thursday, 22 October 2026.

Expected goals are 1.93 for Ajax and 1.50 for Atalanta, a total of 3.43, which puts over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 68%.

The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.

Ajax or Atalanta (no draw) is the main selection, rated 76%. At 1.29 with 1xBet the market prices it at 78%, against 76% from the model.

Over the last 5 matches Ajax stand at 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats; Atalanta show 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats in 5.

Ajax vs Atalanta over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score

Under 2.5 goals is rated 34% and under 3.5 55%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 86% and over 2.5 at 66%.

Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 66%; 1xBet pay 1.47.

The chance of both teams scoring is 68%, built from Ajax scoring in 86% of runs and Atalanta in 78%; clean sheets come at 22% for Ajax and 15% for Atalanta.

Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 68%.

Correct score: 1-1 leads at 9.4%, then 2-1 at 9% and 1-2 at 7%.

A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.

In the half-time / full-time market half-time Ajax, full-time Ajax leads at 30%. A goal before the break is rated 79%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.