Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar prediction

Our Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar prediction and pick

Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar prediction for the Europa League on Thursday, 22 October 2026: the model makes AZ Alkmaar the clear favourite at 70%, with the draw at 18% and Ararat-Armenia at 13%.

Expected goals are 0.93 for Ararat-Armenia and 2.41 for AZ Alkmaar, a total of 3.34, which puts over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 56%.

The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.

Our main pick is aZ Alkmaar to win at 70%. At 1.42 with 1xBet the market prices it at 70%, against 70% from the model.

For a safer line, aZ Alkmaar or draw covers 87% of outcomes at 1.11.

With the draw down at 18%, draw no bet costs little insurance and the 12 line keeps most of the win price.

Over the last 5 matches Ararat-Armenia stand at 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats; AZ Alkmaar show 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats in 5.

Goals forecast for Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline

Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 85%, over 2.5 at 64%, over 3.5 at 43%; under 2.5 is 36% and under 3.5 is 57%.

The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 64%, best priced 1.50 at 1xBet.

The chance of both teams scoring is 56%, built from Ararat-Armenia scoring in 61% of runs and AZ Alkmaar in 91%; clean sheets come at 9% for Ararat-Armenia and 40% for AZ Alkmaar.

Correct score: 0-2 leads at 10.3%, then 1-2 at 9.6% and 0-1 at 8.5%.

A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.

Half-time / full-time: half-time AZ Alkmaar, full-time AZ Alkmaar is the top combination at 47%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 78%.