Europa League
Matchday 3 Thursday, 22 October 2026
FT
Sturm GrazHomeWWDLD
1:0Half-time 1:0
MarseilleAwayLWLWW232651
Sturm Graz winDrawMarseille win
Europa League
Matchday 3 Thursday, 22 October 2026
FT
Sturm GrazHomeWWDLDMarseilleAwayLWLWW- Kick-off Thu 22 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.04 1.20 : 1.84
- Favourite
- 51% Marseille
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 60% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Best odds for Sturm Graz vs Marseille
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 4.16 | 3.88 | 1.88 | 1.66 | 2.33 | 1.55 | 2.32 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Marseille to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best Sturm Graz price at 4.16, 1xBet lead the draw at 3.88 and 1xBet have Marseille longest at 1.88.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 97.1%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.66 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.33 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.55 (1xBet) and no 2.32 (1xBet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
51%
Our prediction
Marseille to win
Double chanceMarseille or draw
77% chance1.27
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
58% chance1.66
BTTSBoth teams to score
60% chance1.55
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
81% chance1.24fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
11% chance9.43fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Marseille, full-time Marseille
33% chance3.05fair
Sturm Graz vs Marseille prediction
Sturm Graz vs Marseille prediction and best bet
Marseille are a narrow favourite in the Sturm Graz vs Marseille prediction, rated 51% to win this Europa League match on Thursday, 22 October 2026. Sturm Graz sit at 23% and the draw at 26%.
The goal expectancy is 3.04 in total, split 1.20 to Sturm Graz and 1.84 to Marseille. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 58% and both teams to score 60%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Our main pick is marseille to win at 51%. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.88. That price implies 53%, 2 points over the model figure.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
Marseille or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 77% chance, priced 1.27.
Form check: Sturm Graz have won 2 of their last 5 with 12 scored and 7 conceded, Marseille 3 of 5 scoring 11 and conceding 7.
Goals, BTTS and correct score for Sturm Graz vs Marseille
On the goal lines Sturm Graz vs Marseille reads 81% for over 1.5, 58% for over 2.5 and 36% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 42%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 58%; 1xBet pay 1.66.
Both teams to score is 60%: Sturm Graz find the net in 70% of simulated matches and Marseille in 84%. Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet 16% of the time and Marseille 30%.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 60%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Sturm Graz vs Marseille: 1-1 (10.6%), 1-2 (9.7%) and 0-1 (8.8%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 10.6% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Marseille, full-time Marseille is the top combination at 33%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 75%.
Every market rated for Sturm Graz vs Marseille
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Sturm Graz vs Marseille, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Sturm Graz to win23%4.16
Draw26%3.88
Marseille to win51%1.88
Sturm Graz, draw no bet31%fair 3.21
Marseille, draw no bet69%fair 1.45
Double chance
Sturm Graz or draw49%2.01
Marseille or draw77%1.27
Sturm Graz or Marseille (no draw)74%1.29
Goals
Over 0.5 goals95%fair 1.05
Over 1.5 goals81%fair 1.24
Over 2.5 goals58%1.66
Over 3.5 goals36%fair 2.76
Over 4.5 goals19%fair 5.24
Under 1.5 goals19%fair 5.18
Under 2.5 goals42%2.33
Under 3.5 goals64%fair 1.57
BTTS
Both teams to score60%1.55
Not both teams to score40%2.32
Halves
First-half goal75%fair 1.34
Over 1.5 first-half goals40%fair 2.52
Second-half goal81%fair 1.23
Team goals
Sturm Graz to score70%fair 1.43
Marseille to score84%fair 1.19
Sturm Graz clean sheet16%fair 6.29
Marseille clean sheet30%fair 3.32
Sturm Graz to win to nil15%fair 6.85
Marseille to win to nil28%fair 3.61
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-110.6%
1-29.7%
0-18.8%
0-28.1%
2-16.3%
1-36%
Half-time / full-time
Marseille / Marseille32.8%
Draw / Marseille16.4%
Sturm Graz / Sturm Graz14.1%
Draw / Draw12.8%
Draw / Sturm Graz8.9%
Questions about Sturm Graz vs Marseille
Sturm Graz or Marseille: which side does the model back?
The model gives Marseille the best chance at 51%, with the draw at 26%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
What is the correct score prediction for Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 10.6%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 58%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Is BTTS likely in Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
The BTTS yes line is rated 60%. Sturm Graz find the net in 70% of simulated matches and Marseille in 84%.
When do Sturm Graz play Marseille?
Sturm Graz vs Marseille starts at 16:45 UTC on Thursday, 22 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.