Marseille vs Toulouse prediction

Marseille vs Toulouse prediction, who wins and at what price

Marseille vs Toulouse prediction for the Ligue 1 on Sunday, 1 November 2026: the model makes Marseille a narrow favourite at 51%, with the draw at 24% and Toulouse at 26%.

Marseille are expected to score 1.98 and Toulouse 1.39, so the total line is 3.37 goals; over 2.5 lands at 65% and BTTS at 66%.

One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.

The pick for Marseille vs Toulouse is marseille to win, a 51% chance. At 1.97 with 1xBet the market prices it at 51%, against 51% from the model.

Marseille or Toulouse (no draw) is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 77% chance, priced 1.30.

Over the last 5 matches Marseille stand at 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats; Toulouse show 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats in 5.

Goals forecast for Marseille vs Toulouse with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline

On the goal lines Marseille vs Toulouse reads 85% for over 1.5, 65% for over 2.5 and 44% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 35%.

Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 65%; Melbet pay 1.58.

Both teams to score is 66%: Marseille find the net in 86% of simulated matches and Toulouse in 75%. Marseille keep a clean sheet 25% of the time and Toulouse 14%.

Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 66%.

The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9.5%, followed by 2-1 (9.4%) and 1-0 (6.8%).

A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.

Half-time / full-time: half-time Marseille, full-time Marseille is the top combination at 32%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 78%.