Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz prediction

Our Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz prediction and pick

Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz prediction for the Austria Cup on Thursday, 29 October 2026: the model makes Sturm Graz the clear favourite at 70%, with the draw at 18% and Austria Lustenau at 12%.

Austria Lustenau are expected to score 0.90 and Sturm Graz 2.37, so the total line is 3.27 goals; over 2.5 lands at 62% and BTTS at 55%.

Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.

Our main pick is sturm Graz to win at 70%. At 1.44 with Melbet the market prices it at 70%, against 70% from the model.

For a safer line, sturm Graz or draw covers 88% of outcomes at 1.10.

The draw sits at only 18%, so the 12 double chance and draw no bet keep more of the price than usual.

Austria Lustenau average 1.6 goals scored and 4.0 conceded across their last 5, Sturm Graz 2.4 and 1.4 across 5.

Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score

Under 2.5 goals is rated 38% and under 3.5 59%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 84% and over 2.5 at 62%.

Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 62%; Betwinner pay 1.55.

The chance of both teams scoring is 55%, built from Austria Lustenau scoring in 59% of runs and Sturm Graz in 91%; clean sheets come at 9% for Austria Lustenau and 41% for Sturm Graz.

The most likely scoreline is 0-2 at 10.7%, followed by 1-2 (9.6%) and 0-1 (9%).

Even the leading scoreline holds only 10.7% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.

In the half-time / full-time market half-time Sturm Graz, full-time Sturm Graz leads at 47%. A goal before the break is rated 77%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.