Lech Poznan vs Sunderland prediction

Our Lech Poznan vs Sunderland prediction and pick

Sunderland are a narrow favourite in the Lech Poznan vs Sunderland prediction, rated 56% to win this Europa League match on Thursday, 22 October 2026. Lech Poznan sit at 21% and the draw at 24%.

Expected goals are 1.05 for Lech Poznan and 1.85 for Sunderland, a total of 2.90, which puts over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 56%.

The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.

Our main pick is sunderland to win at 56%. At 1.74 with 1xBet the market prices it at 57%, against 56% from the model.

The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.

Sunderland or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 79% chance, priced 1.23.

Lech Poznan average 2.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded across their last 5, Sunderland 1.0 and 1.6 across 5.

Lech Poznan vs Sunderland goals, both teams to score and half-time forecast

On the goal lines Lech Poznan vs Sunderland reads 79% for over 1.5, 55% for over 2.5 and 33% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 45%.

Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 55%; 1xBet pay 1.78.

Both teams to score is 56%: Lech Poznan find the net in 65% of simulated matches and Sunderland in 84%. Lech Poznan keep a clean sheet 16% of the time and Sunderland 35%.

Correct score: 1-1 leads at 10.7%, then 0-1 at 10.2% and 1-2 at 9.9%.

A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.

Half-time / full-time: half-time Sunderland, full-time Sunderland is the top combination at 35%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 73%.