Europa League
Matchday 3 Thursday, 22 October 2026
FT
Union St. GilloiseHomeDWWWW
4:0Half-time 1:0
Hapoel Beer ShevaAwayLWLWW691912
Union St. Gilloise winDrawHapoel Beer Sheva win
Europa League
Matchday 3 Thursday, 22 October 2026
FT
Union St. GilloiseHomeDWWWWHapoel Beer ShevaAwayLWLWW- Kick-off Thu 22 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.18 2.30 : 0.88
- Favourite
- 69% Union St. Gilloise
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 53% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Best odds for Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.39 | 5.27 | 8.20 | 1.54 | 2.42 | 1.77 | 1.96 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Union St. Gilloise to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva prediction: Union St. Gilloise 1.39 (1xBet), draw 5.27 (1xBet), Hapoel Beer Sheva 8.20 (1xBet).
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 97%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.54 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.42 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.77 (1xBet) and no 1.96 (1xBet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
69%
Our prediction
Union St. Gilloise to win
Double chanceUnion St. Gilloise or draw
88% chance1.10
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
61% chance1.54
BTTSBoth teams to score
53% chance1.77
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
83% chance1.21fair
ScorelineCorrect score 2-0
11% chance9.09fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Union St. Gilloise, full-time Union St. Gilloise
47% chance2.15fair
Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva prediction
Our Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva prediction and pick
The Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva prediction leans to Union St. Gilloise: 69% against 12% for Hapoel Beer Sheva, with 19% left for the draw, in the Europa League on Thursday, 22 October 2026.
The goal expectancy is 3.18 in total, split 2.30 to Union St. Gilloise and 0.88 to Hapoel Beer Sheva. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 61% and both teams to score 53%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Our main pick is union St. Gilloise to win at 69%. At 1.39 with 1xBet the market prices it at 72%, against 69% from the model.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva.
Union St. Gilloise or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 88% chance, priced 1.10.
With the draw down at 19%, draw no bet costs little insurance and the 12 line keeps most of the win price.
Form check: Union St. Gilloise have won 4 of their last 5 with 15 scored and 4 conceded, Hapoel Beer Sheva 3 of 5 scoring 13 and conceding 11.
Goals forecast for Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
On the goal lines Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva reads 83% for over 1.5, 61% for over 2.5 and 39% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 39%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 61%, best priced 1.54 at 1xBet.
Both teams to score is 53%: Union St. Gilloise find the net in 90% of simulated matches and Hapoel Beer Sheva in 59%. Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet 42% of the time and Hapoel Beer Sheva 10%.
Correct score: 2-0 leads at 11%, then 2-1 at 9.7% and 1-0 at 9.6%.
Even the leading scoreline holds only 11% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Union St. Gilloise, full-time Union St. Gilloise is the top combination at 47%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 76%.
Every market rated for Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 69% / 19% / 12% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Union St. Gilloise to win69%1.39
Draw19%5.27
Hapoel Beer Sheva to win12%8.20
Union St. Gilloise, draw no bet85%fair 1.18
Hapoel Beer Sheva, draw no bet15%fair 6.58
Double chance
Union St. Gilloise or draw88%1.10
Hapoel Beer Sheva or draw31%3.21
Union St. Gilloise or Hapoel Beer Sheva (no draw)81%1.19
Goals
Over 0.5 goals96%fair 1.04
Over 1.5 goals83%fair 1.21
Over 2.5 goals61%1.54
Over 3.5 goals39%fair 2.54
Over 4.5 goals22%fair 4.63
Under 1.5 goals17%fair 5.75
Under 2.5 goals39%2.42
Under 3.5 goals61%fair 1.65
BTTS
Both teams to score53%1.77
Not both teams to score47%1.96
Halves
First-half goal76%fair 1.31
Over 1.5 first-half goals42%fair 2.39
Second-half goal83%fair 1.21
Team goals
Union St. Gilloise to score90%fair 1.11
Hapoel Beer Sheva to score59%fair 1.71
Union St. Gilloise clean sheet42%fair 2.41
Hapoel Beer Sheva clean sheet10%fair 10.00
Union St. Gilloise to win to nil38%fair 2.62
Hapoel Beer Sheva to win to nil9%fair 10.87
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
2-011%
2-19.7%
1-09.6%
3-08.4%
1-18.4%
3-17.4%
Half-time / full-time
Union St. Gilloise / Union St. Gilloise46.5%
Draw / Union St. Gilloise19.5%
Draw / Draw10.4%
Hapoel Beer Sheva / Hapoel Beer Sheva6.9%
Draw / Hapoel Beer Sheva4.9%
Questions about Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
Who is favourite in Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
The model gives Union St. Gilloise the best chance at 69%, with the draw at 19%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
What scoreline is most likely in Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
2-0 is the most likely scoreline at 11%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 61% backs the same picture with less variance.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
The BTTS yes line is rated 53%. Union St. Gilloise find the net in 90% of simulated matches and Hapoel Beer Sheva in 59%.
When do Union St. Gilloise play Hapoel Beer Sheva?
Kick-off is 16:45 UTC on Thursday, 22 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.