Uruguay Primera División
ProgresoHomeLDWWL
2:0Half-time 0:0
JuventudAwayWLDWL292645
Progreso winDrawJuventud win
ProgresoHomeLDWWLJuventudAwayWLDWL- Kick-off Sat 17 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.65 1.16 : 1.49
- Favourite
- 45% Juventud
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 55% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Progreso vs Juventud odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 3.09 | 3.34 | 2.07 | 1.84 | 1.83 | 1.70 | 2.01 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Juventud to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the Progreso vs Juventud prediction: Progreso 3.09 (1xBet), draw 3.34 (1xBet), Juventud 2.07 (1xBet).
The best-price payout across the three results is 90.4%, several points better than any single book offers here.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.84 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.83 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.70 (1xBet) and no 2.01 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
74%
Our prediction
Progreso or Juventud (no draw)
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
51% chance1.83
BTTSBoth teams to score
55% chance1.70
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
74% chance1.35fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
12% chance8.20fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Juventud, full-time Juventud
27% chance3.72fair
First halfFirst-half goal
70% chance1.43fair
Progreso vs Juventud prediction
Our Progreso vs Juventud prediction and pick
Progreso host Juventud on Saturday, 17 October 2026 in the Uruguay Primera División, and the model has Juventud at 45%, the draw at 26% and Progreso at 29%: that is the Progreso vs Juventud prediction in one line.
Progreso are expected to score 1.16 and Juventud 1.49, so the total line is 2.65 goals; over 2.5 lands at 49% and BTTS at 55%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Our main pick is progreso or Juventud (no draw) at 74%. The best price in our comparison is 1.24 at 1xBet, which implies 81%, so the model sits 7 points below the market.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
Progreso average 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded across their last 5, Juventud 0.8 and 0.8 across 5.
Progreso vs Juventud goals, both teams to score and half-time forecast
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 74%, over 2.5 at 49%, over 3.5 at 28%; under 2.5 is 51% and under 3.5 is 73%.
Under 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 51%; 1xBet pay 1.83.
BTTS yes stands at 55%. Progreso score in 69% of simulations against a 31% clean sheet for Juventud; Juventud score in 78% while Progreso shut them out 23% of the time.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.2%, followed by 0-1 (10.5%) and 1-2 (9.1%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 12.2% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Juventud, full-time Juventud leads at 27%. A goal before the break is rated 70%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market rated for Progreso vs Juventud
The grid built from 1.16 and 1.49 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Progreso to win29%3.09
Draw26%3.34
Juventud to win45%2.07
Progreso, draw no bet39%fair 2.56
Juventud, draw no bet61%fair 1.64
Double chance
Progreso or draw55%1.61
Juventud or draw71%1.28
Progreso or Juventud (no draw)74%1.24
Goals
Over 0.5 goals93%fair 1.08
Over 1.5 goals74%fair 1.35
Over 2.5 goals49%1.84
Over 3.5 goals28%fair 3.64
Over 4.5 goals13%fair 7.69
Under 1.5 goals26%fair 3.88
Under 2.5 goals51%1.83
Under 3.5 goals73%fair 1.38
BTTS
Both teams to score55%1.70
Not both teams to score45%2.01
Halves
First-half goal70%fair 1.43
Over 1.5 first-half goals34%fair 2.99
Second-half goal77%fair 1.30
Team goals
Progreso to score69%fair 1.46
Juventud to score78%fair 1.29
Progreso clean sheet23%fair 4.44
Juventud clean sheet31%fair 3.19
Progreso to win to nil21%fair 4.83
Juventud to win to nil29%fair 3.47
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-112.2%
0-110.5%
1-29.1%
1-08.2%
0-27.8%
2-17.1%
Half-time / full-time
Juventud / Juventud26.9%
Progreso / Progreso16.8%
Draw / Draw15.6%
Draw / Juventud15.4%
Draw / Progreso10.9%
Questions about Progreso vs Juventud
Who will win Progreso vs Juventud?
The model gives Juventud the best chance at 45%, with the draw at 26%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
Progreso vs Juventud correct score: what does the model say?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12.2%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 49%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Is BTTS likely in Progreso vs Juventud?
The BTTS yes line is rated 55%. Progreso find the net in 69% of simulated matches and Juventud in 78%.
What time does Progreso vs Juventud kick off?
Progreso vs Juventud starts at 13:00 UTC on Saturday, 17 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.