Uruguay Primera División
ProgresoHomeLDWWL
0:2Half-time 0:0
Defensor SportingAwayLLLDW382933
Progreso winDrawDefensor Sporting win
ProgresoHomeLDWWLDefensor SportingAwayLLLDW- Kick-off Sun 1 Nov
- Expected goals
- 2.46 1.27 : 1.19
- Favourite
- 38% Progreso
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 51% model chance
- Prices compared
- 5 in the odds table
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.47 | 3.08 | 2.58 | 2.04 | 1.67 | 1.80 | 1.89 | Bet |
 22Bet | 2.36 | 3.02 | 2.75 | 2.06 | 1.65 | 1.81 | 1.88 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 2.40 | 3.10 | 2.90 | 2.10 | 1.68 | 1.83 | 1.83 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 2.36 | 3.02 | 2.75 | 2.06 | 1.65 | 1.81 | 1.88 | Bet |
 Melbet | 2.36 | 3.02 | 2.75 | 2.06 | 1.65 | 1.81 | 1.88 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Progreso to win partner prices
The top 1X2 prices for Progreso vs Defensor Sporting are 2.47 for Progreso at 1xBet, 3.10 for the draw at BC.Game and 2.90 for Defensor Sporting at BC.Game.
The best-price payout across the three results is 93.3%, several points better than any single book offers here.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 2.10 (BC.Game) and under 2.5 1.68 (BC.Game); both teams to score yes pays 1.83 (BC.Game) and no 1.89 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
72%
Our prediction
Progreso or Defensor Sporting (no draw)
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
56% chance1.68
BTTSBoth teams to score
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
70% chance1.42fairWon
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
13% chance7.75fairLost
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Progreso, full-time Progreso
22% chance4.48fairLost
First halfFirst-half goal
67% chance1.49fairLost
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting odds movement
Progreso win2.47-0.13
Draw3.10-0.23
Defensor Sporting win2.90unchanged
Over 2.5 goals2.10-0.05
Under 2.5 goals1.68-0.04
Best price in the comparison at each refresh since the match was first priced on 1 Nov, 23:57 UTC. A shortening price means money has come for that outcome.
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting prediction
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting prediction, who wins and at what price
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting prediction for the Uruguay Primera División on Sunday, 1 November 2026: the model calls it close, Progreso 38%, draw 29%, Defensor Sporting 34%. With no clear favourite the single-result markets carry real risk, and the goal lines below are where the steadier edges sit.
The goal expectancy is 2.46 in total, split 1.27 to Progreso and 1.19 to Defensor Sporting. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 44% and both teams to score 51%.
One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.
Progreso or Defensor Sporting (no draw) is the main selection, rated 72%. BC.Game offer the top price at 1.31. That price implies 76%, 5 points over the model figure.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Progreso vs Defensor Sporting.
Progreso average 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded across their last 5, Defensor Sporting 1.8 and 2.0 across 5.
Under 2.5, both teams to score and the scoreline in Progreso vs Defensor Sporting
Under 2.5 goals is rated 56% and under 3.5 77%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 70% and over 2.5 at 44%.
Under 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 56%; BC.Game pay 1.68.
Both teams to score is 51%: Progreso find the net in 72% of simulated matches and Defensor Sporting in 70%. Progreso keep a clean sheet 30% of the time and Defensor Sporting 28%.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.9%, followed by 1-0 (10.9%) and 0-1 (10.2%).
With the top scoreline at 12.9%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Progreso vs Defensor Sporting; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Progreso, full-time Progreso is the top combination at 22%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 67%.
All markets, Progreso vs Defensor Sporting
The grid built from 1.27 and 1.19 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Progreso to win38%2.47
Draw29%3.10
Defensor Sporting to win34%2.90
Progreso, draw no bet53%fair 1.90
Defensor Sporting, draw no bet47%fair 2.11
Double chance
Progreso or draw66%1.37
Defensor Sporting or draw62%1.50
Progreso or Defensor Sporting (no draw)72%1.31
Goals
Over 0.5 goals92%fair 1.09
Over 1.5 goals70%fair 1.42
Over 2.5 goals44%2.10
Over 3.5 goals23%fair 4.27
Over 4.5 goals10%fair 9.62
Under 1.5 goals30%fair 3.38
Under 2.5 goals56%1.68
Under 3.5 goals77%fair 1.31
BTTS
Both teams to score51%1.83
Not both teams to score49%1.89
Halves
First-half goal67%fair 1.49
Over 1.5 first-half goals30%fair 3.29
Second-half goal74%fair 1.35
Team goals
Progreso to score72%fair 1.39
Defensor Sporting to score70%fair 1.44
Progreso clean sheet30%fair 3.29
Defensor Sporting clean sheet28%fair 3.56
Progreso to win to nil28%fair 3.57
Defensor Sporting to win to nil26%fair 3.88
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.02
Even number of goals50%fair 1.98
Most likely scores
1-112.9%
1-010.9%
0-110.2%
0-08.5%
2-18.2%
1-27.7%
Half-time / full-time
Progreso / Progreso22.3%
Defensor Sporting / Defensor Sporting19.8%
Draw / Draw17.2%
Draw / Progreso14%
Draw / Defensor Sporting12.8%
Questions about Progreso vs Defensor Sporting
Progreso or Defensor Sporting: which side does the model back?
The model gives Progreso the best chance at 38%, with the draw at 29%. Under 50% the favourite fails to win more often than it wins, which is why the double chance is the safer line here.
What is the correct score prediction for Progreso vs Defensor Sporting?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12.9%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 44% backs the same picture with less variance.
Is BTTS likely in Progreso vs Defensor Sporting?
The BTTS yes line is rated 51%. Progreso find the net in 72% of simulated matches and Defensor Sporting in 70%.
When is Progreso vs Defensor Sporting and where is the result shown?
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting starts at 13:00 UTC on Sunday, 1 November 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.