Uruguay Primera División
WanderersHomeDLLLD
0:1Half-time 0:0
ProgresoAwayLDWWL442828
Wanderers winDrawProgreso win
WanderersHomeDLLLDProgresoAwayLDWWL- Kick-off Sun 25 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.59 1.46 : 1.13
- Favourite
- 44% Wanderers
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 54% model chance
- Prices compared
- 5 in the odds table
Best odds for Wanderers vs Progreso
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.05 | 3.24 | 3.24 | 1.89 | 1.78 | 1.73 | 1.98 | Bet |
 22Bet | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 1.97 | 1.83 | 1.74 | 2.02 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 1.94 | 1.78 | 1.74 | 1.93 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 1.97 | 1.83 | 1.74 | 2.02 | Bet |
 Melbet | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 1.97 | 1.83 | 1.74 | 2.02 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Wanderers to win partner prices
Betwinner pay the best Wanderers price at 2.20, BC.Game lead the draw at 3.30 and BC.Game have Progreso longest at 3.30.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 94.3%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.97 (22Bet) and under 2.5 1.83 (22Bet); both teams to score yes pays 1.74 (Betwinner) and no 2.02 (Betwinner).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
72%
Our prediction
Wanderers or Progreso (no draw)
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
53% chance1.83
BTTSBoth teams to score
54% chance1.74
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
73% chance1.37fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
12% chance8.06fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Wanderers, full-time Wanderers
27% chance3.73fair
First halfFirst-half goal
69% chance1.45fair
Wanderers vs Progreso prediction
Wanderers vs Progreso prediction, who wins and at what price
Wanderers vs Progreso prediction for the Uruguay Primera División on Sunday, 25 October 2026: the model makes Wanderers marginally ahead at 44%, with the draw at 28% and Progreso at 28%.
The goal expectancy is 2.59 in total, split 1.46 to Wanderers and 1.13 to Progreso. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 47% and both teams to score 54%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
Wanderers or Progreso (no draw) is the main selection, rated 72%. The best price in our comparison is 1.31 at Melbet, which implies 76%, so the model sits 4 points below the market.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Wanderers vs Progreso.
Form check: Wanderers have won 0 of their last 5 with 4 scored and 10 conceded, Progreso 2 of 5 scoring 6 and conceding 6.
Goals, BTTS and correct score for Wanderers vs Progreso
Under 2.5 goals is rated 53% and under 3.5 74%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 73% and over 2.5 at 47%.
The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 53%, best priced 1.83 at 22Bet.
Both teams to score is 54%: Wanderers find the net in 77% of simulated matches and Progreso in 68%. Wanderers keep a clean sheet 32% of the time and Progreso 23%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Wanderers vs Progreso: 1-1 (12.4%), 1-0 (11%) and 2-1 (9%).
With the top scoreline at 12.4%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Wanderers vs Progreso; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Wanderers, full-time Wanderers leads at 27%. A goal before the break is rated 69%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
All markets, Wanderers vs Progreso
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 44% / 28% / 28% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Wanderers to win44%2.20
Draw28%3.30
Progreso to win28%3.30
Wanderers, draw no bet61%fair 1.64
Progreso, draw no bet39%fair 2.56
Double chance
Wanderers or draw72%1.31
Progreso or draw56%1.65
Wanderers or Progreso (no draw)72%1.31
Goals
Over 0.5 goals93%fair 1.08
Over 1.5 goals73%fair 1.37
Over 2.5 goals47%1.97
Over 3.5 goals26%fair 3.82
Over 4.5 goals12%fair 8.26
Under 1.5 goals27%fair 3.72
Under 2.5 goals53%1.83
Under 3.5 goals74%fair 1.36
BTTS
Both teams to score54%1.74
Not both teams to score46%2.02
Halves
First-half goal69%fair 1.45
Over 1.5 first-half goals33%fair 3.08
Second-half goal76%fair 1.32
Team goals
Wanderers to score77%fair 1.30
Progreso to score68%fair 1.48
Wanderers clean sheet32%fair 3.10
Progreso clean sheet23%fair 4.31
Wanderers to win to nil30%fair 3.37
Progreso to win to nil21%fair 4.67
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-112.4%
1-011%
2-19%
0-18.5%
2-08%
0-07.5%
Half-time / full-time
Wanderers / Wanderers26.8%
Progreso / Progreso16.6%
Draw / Draw16%
Draw / Wanderers15.5%
Draw / Progreso10.9%
Questions about Wanderers vs Progreso
Who is favourite in Wanderers vs Progreso?
The model gives Wanderers the best chance at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Under 50% the favourite fails to win more often than it wins, which is why the double chance is the safer line here.
Wanderers vs Progreso correct score: what does the model say?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12.4%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 47% backs the same picture with less variance.
Wanderers vs Progreso both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 54%. Wanderers find the net in 77% of simulated matches and Progreso in 68%.
When is Wanderers vs Progreso and where is the result shown?
Kick-off is 13:00 UTC on Sunday, 25 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.