Uruguay Primera División
Club NacionalHomeWWWLW
3:2Half-time 1:0
Deportivo MaldonadoAwayDWLWW522622
Club Nacional winDrawDeportivo Maldonado win
Club NacionalHomeWWWLWDeportivo MaldonadoAwayDWLWW- Kick-off Mon 19 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.59 1.62 : 0.97
- Favourite
- 52% Club Nacional
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 52% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Club Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado betting odds by bookmaker
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.77 | 3.44 | 4.00 | 1.90 | 1.77 | 1.80 | 1.89 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Club Nacional to win partner prices
The top 1X2 prices for Club Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado are 1.77 for Club Nacional at 1xBet, 3.44 for the draw at 1xBet and 4.00 for Deportivo Maldonado at 1xBet.
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 90.4%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.90 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.77 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.80 (1xBet) and no 1.89 (1xBet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
52%
Our prediction
Club Nacional to win
Double chanceClub Nacional or draw
78% chance1.17
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
53% chance1.77
BTTSBoth teams to score
52% chance1.80
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
73% chance1.37fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-0
12% chance8.20fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Club Nacional, full-time Club Nacional
32% chance3.09fair
Club Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado prediction
Club Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado prediction, who wins and at what price
Club Nacional host Deportivo Maldonado on Monday, 19 October 2026 in the Uruguay Primera División, and the model has Club Nacional at 52%, the draw at 26% and Deportivo Maldonado at 22%: that is the Club Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado prediction in one line.
Expected goals are 1.62 for Club Nacional and 0.97 for Deportivo Maldonado, a total of 2.59, which puts over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 52%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Our main pick is club Nacional to win at 52%. The best price in our comparison is 1.77 at 1xBet, which implies 56%, so the model sits 4 points below the market.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
Club Nacional or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 78% chance, priced 1.17.
Form check: Club Nacional have won 4 of their last 5 with 9 scored and 4 conceded, Deportivo Maldonado 3 of 5 scoring 13 and conceding 6.
Goals, BTTS and correct score for Club Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 73%, over 2.5 at 47%, over 3.5 at 26%; under 2.5 is 53% and under 3.5 is 74%.
Under 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 53%; 1xBet pay 1.77.
Both teams to score is 52%: Club Nacional find the net in 80% of simulated matches and Deportivo Maldonado in 62%. Club Nacional keep a clean sheet 38% of the time and Deportivo Maldonado 20%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Club Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado: 1-0 (12.2%), 1-1 (11.8%) and 2-0 (9.8%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 12.2% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Club Nacional, full-time Club Nacional leads at 32%. A goal before the break is rated 69%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
All markets, Club Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado
The grid built from 1.62 and 0.97 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Club Nacional to win52%1.77
Draw26%3.44
Deportivo Maldonado to win22%4.00
Club Nacional, draw no bet71%fair 1.42
Deportivo Maldonado, draw no bet29%fair 3.40
Double chance
Club Nacional or draw78%1.17
Deportivo Maldonado or draw48%1.85
Club Nacional or Deportivo Maldonado (no draw)74%1.23
Goals
Over 0.5 goals93%fair 1.08
Over 1.5 goals73%fair 1.37
Over 2.5 goals47%1.90
Over 3.5 goals26%fair 3.82
Over 4.5 goals12%fair 8.26
Under 1.5 goals27%fair 3.72
Under 2.5 goals53%1.77
Under 3.5 goals74%fair 1.36
BTTS
Both teams to score52%1.80
Not both teams to score49%1.89
Halves
First-half goal69%fair 1.45
Over 1.5 first-half goals33%fair 3.08
Second-half goal76%fair 1.32
Team goals
Club Nacional to score80%fair 1.25
Deportivo Maldonado to score62%fair 1.61
Club Nacional clean sheet38%fair 2.64
Deportivo Maldonado clean sheet20%fair 5.05
Club Nacional to win to nil35%fair 2.87
Deportivo Maldonado to win to nil18%fair 5.49
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-012.2%
1-111.8%
2-09.8%
2-19.5%
0-07.5%
0-17.3%
Half-time / full-time
Club Nacional / Club Nacional32.4%
Draw / Club Nacional17.7%
Draw / Draw15.5%
Deportivo Maldonado / Deportivo Maldonado12.5%
Draw / Deportivo Maldonado8.8%
Questions about Club Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado
Who is favourite in Club Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado?
The model gives Club Nacional the best chance at 52%, with the draw at 26%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
Club Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado correct score: what does the model say?
1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 12.2%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 47%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Will both teams score in Club Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado?
The BTTS yes line is rated 52%. Club Nacional find the net in 80% of simulated matches and Deportivo Maldonado in 62%.
When do Club Nacional play Deportivo Maldonado?
Club Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado starts at 23:00 UTC on Monday, 19 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.