Cerro vs Cerro Largo prediction

Cerro vs Cerro Largo prediction, who wins and at what price

Cerro are marginally ahead in the Cerro vs Cerro Largo prediction, rated 42% to win this Uruguay Primera División match on Friday, 16 October 2026. Cerro Largo sit at 27% and the draw at 31%.

Expected goals are 1.25 for Cerro and 0.95 for Cerro Largo, a total of 2.20, which puts over 2.5 goals at 38% and both teams to score at 46%.

One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.

Our main pick is cerro or draw at 73%. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.26. That price implies 79%, 6 points over the model figure.

The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.

The draw is live at 31%, above the one-in-four baseline, which is why the double chance beats the straight win here.

Over the last 5 matches Cerro stand at 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats; Cerro Largo show 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats in 5.

Under 2.5, both teams to score and the scoreline in Cerro vs Cerro Largo

On the goal lines Cerro vs Cerro Largo reads 65% for over 1.5, 38% for over 2.5 and 18% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 63%.

The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 63%, best priced 1.51 at 1xBet.

Both teams to score is 46%: Cerro find the net in 71% of simulated matches and Cerro Largo in 61%. Cerro keep a clean sheet 39% of the time and Cerro Largo 29%.

Three scorelines carry the most weight for Cerro vs Cerro Largo: 1-0 (13.9%), 1-1 (13.2%) and 0-0 (11.1%).

A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.

Half-time / full-time: half-time Cerro, full-time Cerro is the top combination at 25%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 63%.