Uruguay Primera División
JuventudHomeWLDWL
0:0Half-time 0:0
PenarolAwayDLDLD242848
Juventud winDrawPenarol win
JuventudHomeWLDWLPenarolAwayDLDLD- Kick-off Fri 23 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.45 0.98 : 1.47
- Favourite
- 48% Penarol
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 50% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Best odds for Juventud vs Penarol
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 3.71 | 3.22 | 1.90 | 2.05 | 1.66 | 1.86 | 1.83 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Penarol to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best Juventud price at 3.71, 1xBet lead the draw at 3.22 and 1xBet have Penarol longest at 1.90.
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 90.4%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 2.05 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.66 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.86 (1xBet) and no 1.83 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
76%
Our prediction
Penarol or draw
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
56% chance1.66
BTTSNot both teams to score
50% chance1.83
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
70% chance1.42fair
ScorelineCorrect score 0-1
13% chance7.87fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Penarol, full-time Penarol
29% chance3.42fair
First halfFirst-half goal
67% chance1.50fair
Juventud vs Penarol prediction
Our Juventud vs Penarol prediction and pick
Juventud vs Penarol prediction for the Uruguay Primera División on Friday, 23 October 2026: the model makes Penarol marginally ahead at 48%, with the draw at 28% and Juventud at 24%.
Juventud are expected to score 0.98 and Penarol 1.47, so the total line is 2.45 goals; over 2.5 lands at 44% and BTTS at 50%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
The pick for Juventud vs Penarol is penarol or draw, a 76% chance. The best price in our comparison is 1.19 at 1xBet, which implies 84%, so the model sits 8 points below the market.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Juventud vs Penarol.
Juventud average 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded across their last 5, Penarol 0.4 and 1.0 across 5.
A low-scoring Juventud vs Penarol? Under 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
Under 2.5 goals is rated 56% and under 3.5 77%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 70% and over 2.5 at 44%.
The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 56%, best priced 1.66 at 1xBet.
The chance of both teams scoring is 50%, built from Juventud scoring in 63% of runs and Penarol in 77%; clean sheets come at 23% for Juventud and 38% for Penarol.
The most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 12.7%, followed by 1-1 (12.4%) and 0-2 (9.3%).
With the top scoreline at 12.7%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Juventud vs Penarol; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Penarol, full-time Penarol is the top combination at 29%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 67%.
Every market rated for Juventud vs Penarol
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Juventud vs Penarol, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Juventud to win24%3.71
Draw28%3.22
Penarol to win48%1.90
Juventud, draw no bet34%fair 2.96
Penarol, draw no bet66%fair 1.51
Double chance
Juventud or draw52%1.72
Penarol or draw76%1.19
Juventud or Penarol (no draw)72%1.26
Goals
Over 0.5 goals91%fair 1.09
Over 1.5 goals70%fair 1.42
Over 2.5 goals44%2.05
Over 3.5 goals23%fair 4.31
Over 4.5 goals10%fair 9.80
Under 1.5 goals30%fair 3.36
Under 2.5 goals56%1.66
Under 3.5 goals77%fair 1.30
BTTS
Both teams to score50%1.86
Not both teams to score50%1.83
Halves
First-half goal67%fair 1.50
Over 1.5 first-half goals30%fair 3.31
Second-half goal74%fair 1.35
Team goals
Juventud to score63%fair 1.60
Penarol to score77%fair 1.30
Juventud clean sheet23%fair 4.35
Penarol clean sheet38%fair 2.67
Juventud to win to nil21%fair 4.72
Penarol to win to nil35%fair 2.90
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.02
Even number of goals50%fair 1.98
Most likely scores
0-112.7%
1-112.4%
0-29.3%
1-29.1%
0-08.6%
1-08.5%
Half-time / full-time
Penarol / Penarol29.2%
Draw / Penarol17%
Draw / Draw16.8%
Juventud / Juventud14%
Draw / Juventud9.8%
Questions about Juventud vs Penarol
Juventud or Penarol: which side does the model back?
The model gives Penarol the best chance at 48%, with the draw at 28%. Under 50% the favourite fails to win more often than it wins, which is why the double chance is the safer line here.
What is the correct score prediction for Juventud vs Penarol?
0-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12.7%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 44% backs the same picture with less variance.
Is BTTS likely in Juventud vs Penarol?
The BTTS yes line is rated 50%. Juventud find the net in 63% of simulated matches and Penarol in 77%.
What time does Juventud vs Penarol kick off?
Kick-off is 23:00 UTC on Friday, 23 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.