Uruguay Primera División
Liverpool MontevideoHomeDWWWW
1:0Half-time 0:0
PenarolAwayDLDLD292942
Liverpool Montevideo winDrawPenarol win
Liverpool MontevideoHomeDWWWWPenarolAwayDLDLD- Kick-off Sun 18 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.43 1.08 : 1.35
- Favourite
- 42% Penarol
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 50% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol betting odds by bookmaker
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 3.18 | 3.08 | 2.14 | 2.08 | 1.64 | 1.83 | 1.86 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Penarol to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best Liverpool Montevideo price at 3.18, 1xBet lead the draw at 3.08 and 1xBet have Penarol longest at 2.14.
The best-price payout across the three results is 90.4%, several points better than any single book offers here.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 2.08 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.64 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.83 (1xBet) and no 1.86 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
71%
Our prediction
Penarol or draw
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
57% chance1.64
BTTSBoth teams to score
50% chance1.83
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
70% chance1.43fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
13% chance7.81fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Penarol, full-time Penarol
25% chance3.94fair
First halfFirst-half goal
67% chance1.50fair
Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol prediction
Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol prediction, who wins and at what price
Penarol are marginally ahead in the Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol prediction, rated 42% to win this Uruguay Primera División match on Sunday, 18 October 2026. Liverpool Montevideo sit at 29% and the draw at 29%.
The goal expectancy is 2.43 in total, split 1.08 to Liverpool Montevideo and 1.35 to Penarol. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 43% and both teams to score 50%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
The pick for Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol is penarol or draw, a 71% chance. At 1.26 with 1xBet the market prices it at 79%, against 71% from the model.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
Over the last 5 matches Liverpool Montevideo stand at 4 wins, 1 draws and 0 defeats; Penarol show 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in 5.
Under 2.5, both teams to score and the scoreline in Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol
On the goal lines Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol reads 70% for over 1.5, 43% for over 2.5 and 23% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 57%.
The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 57%, best priced 1.64 at 1xBet.
The chance of both teams scoring is 50%, built from Liverpool Montevideo scoring in 66% of runs and Penarol in 74%; clean sheets come at 26% for Liverpool Montevideo and 34% for Penarol.
Correct score: 1-1 leads at 12.8%, then 0-1 at 11.9% and 1-0 at 9.5%.
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Penarol, full-time Penarol is the top combination at 25%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 67%.
Every market rated for Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Liverpool Montevideo to win29%3.18
Draw29%3.08
Penarol to win42%2.14
Liverpool Montevideo, draw no bet41%fair 2.45
Penarol, draw no bet59%fair 1.69
Double chance
Liverpool Montevideo or draw58%1.56
Penarol or draw71%1.26
Liverpool Montevideo or Penarol (no draw)71%1.28
Goals
Over 0.5 goals91%fair 1.10
Over 1.5 goals70%fair 1.43
Over 2.5 goals43%2.08
Over 3.5 goals23%fair 4.39
Over 4.5 goals10%fair 10.00
Under 1.5 goals30%fair 3.31
Under 2.5 goals57%1.64
Under 3.5 goals77%fair 1.30
BTTS
Both teams to score50%1.83
Not both teams to score50%1.86
Halves
First-half goal67%fair 1.50
Over 1.5 first-half goals30%fair 3.34
Second-half goal74%fair 1.36
Team goals
Liverpool Montevideo to score66%fair 1.52
Penarol to score74%fair 1.35
Liverpool Montevideo clean sheet26%fair 3.86
Penarol clean sheet34%fair 2.94
Liverpool Montevideo to win to nil24%fair 4.18
Penarol to win to nil31%fair 3.21
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.02
Even number of goals50%fair 1.98
Most likely scores
1-112.8%
0-111.9%
1-09.5%
0-08.8%
1-28.7%
0-28%
Half-time / full-time
Penarol / Penarol25.4%
Draw / Draw17.3%
Liverpool Montevideo / Liverpool Montevideo16.9%
Draw / Penarol15.4%
Draw / Liverpool Montevideo11.4%
Questions about Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol
Who is favourite in Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol?
The model gives Penarol the best chance at 42%, with the draw at 29%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
What is the correct score prediction for Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12.8%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 43%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Is BTTS likely in Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol?
The BTTS yes line is rated 50%. Liverpool Montevideo find the net in 66% of simulated matches and Penarol in 74%.
When do Liverpool Montevideo play Penarol?
Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol starts at 21:30 UTC on Sunday, 18 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.