Liga Portugal
Round 11 Friday, 6 November 2026
Kick-off
FamalicaoHomeWLLWL
Fri 6 Nov
AroucaAwayDWWWW462727
Famalicao winDrawArouca win
Liga Portugal
Round 11 Friday, 6 November 2026
Kick-off
FamalicaoHomeWLLWLAroucaAwayDWWWW- Kick-off Fri 6 Nov
- Expected goals
- 2.62 1.51 : 1.11
- Favourite
- 46% Famalicao
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 53% model chance
- Prices compared
- 6 in the odds table
Famalicao vs Arouca odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.00 | 3.61 | 3.92 | 1.96 | 1.92 | 1.74 | 1.98 | Bet |
 22Bet | 1.97 | 3.52 | 3.84 | 1.92 | 1.88 | 1.74 | 1.98 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 1.93 | 3.40 | 3.75 | 1.90 | 1.83 | 1.74 | 1.95 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 1.97 | 3.52 | 3.84 | 1.92 | 1.88 | 1.74 | 1.98 | Bet |
 Melbet | 1.97 | 3.52 | 3.84 | 1.92 | 1.88 | 1.74 | 1.98 | Bet |
 Stake | 1.94 | 3.45 | 3.80 | 1.86 | 1.84 | 1.75 | 1.93 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Famalicao to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best Famalicao price at 2.00, 1xBet lead the draw at 3.61 and 1xBet have Arouca longest at 3.92.
The best-price payout across the three results is 96.9%, several points better than any single book offers here.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.96 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.92 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.75 (Stake) and no 1.98 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
73%
Our prediction
Famalicao or Arouca (no draw)
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
51% chance1.92
BTTSBoth teams to score
53% chance1.75
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
74% chance1.36fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
12% chance8.20fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Famalicao, full-time Famalicao
28% chance3.57fair
First halfFirst-half goal
69% chance1.45fair
Famalicao vs Arouca prediction
Famalicao vs Arouca prediction and best bet
Famalicao vs Arouca prediction for the Liga Portugal on Friday, 6 November 2026: the model makes Famalicao marginally ahead at 46%, with the draw at 27% and Arouca at 27%.
The goal expectancy is 2.62 in total, split 1.51 to Famalicao and 1.11 to Arouca. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 49% and both teams to score 53%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Our main pick is famalicao or Arouca (no draw) at 73%. At 1.32 with 1xBet the market prices it at 76%, against 73% from the model.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Famalicao vs Arouca.
Famalicao average 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded across their last 5, Arouca 1.8 and 1.0 across 5.
Famalicao vs Arouca goals, both teams to score and half-time forecast
On the goal lines Famalicao vs Arouca reads 74% for over 1.5, 49% for over 2.5 and 27% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 51%.
Under 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 51%; 1xBet pay 1.92.
Both teams to score is 53%: Famalicao find the net in 78% of simulated matches and Arouca in 67%. Famalicao keep a clean sheet 33% of the time and Arouca 22%.
Correct score: 1-1 leads at 12.2%, then 1-0 at 11% and 2-1 at 9.2%.
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Famalicao, full-time Famalicao leads at 28%. A goal before the break is rated 69%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
All markets, Famalicao vs Arouca
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 46% / 27% / 27% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Famalicao to win46%2.00
Draw27%3.61
Arouca to win27%3.92
Famalicao, draw no bet63%fair 1.59
Arouca, draw no bet37%fair 2.68
Double chance
Famalicao or draw73%1.29
Arouca or draw54%1.88
Famalicao or Arouca (no draw)73%1.32
Goals
Over 0.5 goals93%fair 1.08
Over 1.5 goals74%fair 1.36
Over 2.5 goals49%1.96
Over 3.5 goals27%fair 3.73
Over 4.5 goals13%fair 8.00
Under 1.5 goals26%fair 3.79
Under 2.5 goals51%1.92
Under 3.5 goals73%fair 1.37
BTTS
Both teams to score53%1.75
Not both teams to score47%1.98
Halves
First-half goal69%fair 1.45
Over 1.5 first-half goals33%fair 3.03
Second-half goal76%fair 1.31
Team goals
Famalicao to score78%fair 1.28
Arouca to score67%fair 1.49
Famalicao clean sheet33%fair 3.03
Arouca clean sheet22%fair 4.52
Famalicao to win to nil30%fair 3.30
Arouca to win to nil20%fair 4.93
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-112.2%
1-011%
2-19.2%
2-08.3%
0-18.1%
0-07.3%
Half-time / full-time
Famalicao / Famalicao28%
Draw / Famalicao16%
Arouca / Arouca15.8%
Draw / Draw15.7%
Draw / Arouca10.5%
Questions about Famalicao vs Arouca
Who will win Famalicao vs Arouca?
The model gives Famalicao the best chance at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Under 50% the favourite fails to win more often than it wins, which is why the double chance is the safer line here.
What scoreline is most likely in Famalicao vs Arouca?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12.2%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 49% backs the same picture with less variance.
Famalicao vs Arouca both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 53%. Famalicao find the net in 78% of simulated matches and Arouca in 67%.
What time does Famalicao vs Arouca kick off?
Kick-off is 20:45 UTC on Friday, 6 November 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.