CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca prediction

CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca prediction and best bet

CF Os Belenenses host Arouca on Sunday, 18 October 2026 in the Taça de Portugal, and the model has Arouca at 60%, the draw at 20% and CF Os Belenenses at 20%: that is the CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca prediction in one line.

Expected goals are 0.91 for CF Os Belenenses and 1.80 for Arouca, a total of 2.71, which puts over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 49%.

The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.

Our main pick is arouca to win at 60%. The best price in our comparison is 1.57 at 1xBet, which implies 64%, so the model sits 4 points below the market.

The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.

CF Os Belenenses or Arouca (no draw) is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 80% chance, priced 1.18.

The draw sits at only 20%, so the 12 double chance and draw no bet keep more of the price than usual.

How many goals in CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca? Lines, BTTS and scorelines

Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 75%, over 2.5 at 50%, over 3.5 at 29%; under 2.5 is 50% and under 3.5 is 71%.

Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 50%; 1xBet pay 1.86.

The chance of both teams scoring is 49%, built from CF Os Belenenses scoring in 60% of runs and Arouca in 84%; clean sheets come at 17% for CF Os Belenenses and 40% for Arouca.

Correct score: 0-1 leads at 12%, then 1-1 at 10.9% and 0-2 at 10.8%.

A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.

In the half-time / full-time market half-time Arouca, full-time Arouca leads at 37%. A goal before the break is rated 71%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.