Liga Portugal
Round 10 Sunday, 1 November 2026
FT
AroucaHomeDWWWW
1:0Half-time 0:0
NacionalAwayLLLWL602317
Arouca winDrawNacional win
Liga Portugal
Round 10 Sunday, 1 November 2026
FT
AroucaHomeDWWWWNacionalAwayLLLWL- Kick-off Sun 1 Nov
- Expected goals
- 2.76 1.86 : 0.90
- Favourite
- 60% Arouca
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 51% model chance
- Prices compared
- 6 in the odds table
Arouca vs Nacional betting odds by bookmaker
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.62 | 4.22 | 5.68 | 1.87 | 2.02 | 1.83 | 1.87 | Bet |
 22Bet | 1.63 | 4.02 | 5.25 | 2.01 | 1.81 | 1.90 | 1.90 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 1.59 | 3.80 | 5.40 | 1.84 | 1.89 | 1.85 | 1.86 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 1.61 | 4.00 | 5.50 | 2.01 | 1.81 | 1.90 | 1.90 | Bet |
 Melbet | 1.61 | 4.00 | 5.50 | 2.01 | 1.81 | 1.90 | 1.90 | Bet |
 Stake | 1.61 | 4.00 | 5.20 | 1.78 | 1.96 | 1.84 | 1.87 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Arouca to win partner prices
22Bet pay the best Arouca price at 1.63, 1xBet lead the draw at 4.22 and 1xBet have Nacional longest at 5.68.
The best-price payout across the three results is 97.2%, several points better than any single book offers here.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 2.01 (22Bet) and under 2.5 2.02 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.90 (22Bet) and no 1.90 (22Bet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
60%
Our prediction
Arouca to win
Double chanceArouca or draw
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
BTTSBoth teams to score
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
76% chance1.31fairLost
ScorelineCorrect score 1-0
12% chance8.47fairLost
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Arouca, full-time Arouca
38% chance2.62fairLost
Arouca vs Nacional odds movement
Arouca win1.63-0.08
Draw4.22-0.02
Nacional win5.68-0.10
Over 2.5 goals2.01unchanged
Under 2.5 goals2.02-0.02
Best price in the comparison at each refresh since the match was first priced on 1 Nov, 23:58 UTC. A shortening price means money has come for that outcome.
Arouca vs Nacional prediction
Arouca vs Nacional prediction, who wins and at what price
The Arouca vs Nacional prediction leans to Arouca: 60% against 18% for Nacional, with 23% left for the draw, in the Liga Portugal on Sunday, 1 November 2026.
The goal expectancy is 2.76 in total, split 1.86 to Arouca and 0.90 to Nacional. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 52% and both teams to score 51%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
The pick for Arouca vs Nacional is arouca to win, a 60% chance. 22Bet offer the top price at 1.63. That price implies 62%, 2 points over the model figure.
Arouca or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 83% chance, priced 1.17.
Form check: Arouca have won 4 of their last 5 with 9 scored and 5 conceded, Nacional 1 of 5 scoring 3 and conceding 9.
Goals, BTTS and correct score for Arouca vs Nacional
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 76%, over 2.5 at 52%, over 3.5 at 30%; under 2.5 is 48% and under 3.5 is 70%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 52%, best priced 2.01 at 22Bet.
BTTS yes stands at 51%. Arouca score in 84% of simulations against a 16% clean sheet for Nacional; Nacional score in 59% while Arouca shut them out 41% of the time.
The most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 11.8%, followed by 2-0 (10.9%) and 1-1 (10.6%).
With the top scoreline at 11.8%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Arouca vs Nacional; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Arouca, full-time Arouca is the top combination at 38%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 71%.
Every market rated for Arouca vs Nacional
The grid built from 1.86 and 0.90 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Arouca to win60%1.63
Draw23%4.22
Nacional to win18%5.68
Arouca, draw no bet77%fair 1.29
Nacional, draw no bet23%fair 4.41
Double chance
Arouca or draw83%1.17
Nacional or draw40%2.42
Arouca or Nacional (no draw)77%1.26
Goals
Over 0.5 goals94%fair 1.07
Over 1.5 goals76%fair 1.31
Over 2.5 goals52%2.01
Over 3.5 goals30%fair 3.34
Over 4.5 goals15%fair 6.85
Under 1.5 goals24%fair 4.20
Under 2.5 goals48%2.02
Under 3.5 goals70%fair 1.43
BTTS
Both teams to score51%1.90
Not both teams to score50%1.90
Halves
First-half goal71%fair 1.41
Over 1.5 first-half goals35%fair 2.84
Second-half goal78%fair 1.28
Team goals
Arouca to score84%fair 1.18
Nacional to score59%fair 1.69
Arouca clean sheet41%fair 2.46
Nacional clean sheet16%fair 6.41
Arouca to win to nil37%fair 2.67
Nacional to win to nil14%fair 6.99
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-011.8%
2-010.9%
1-110.6%
2-19.9%
3-06.8%
0-06.3%
Half-time / full-time
Arouca / Arouca38.2%
Draw / Arouca18.9%
Draw / Draw13.6%
Nacional / Nacional9.7%
Draw / Nacional6.9%
Questions about Arouca vs Nacional
Arouca or Nacional: which side does the model back?
The model gives Arouca the best chance at 60%, with the draw at 23%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
What is the correct score prediction for Arouca vs Nacional?
1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 11.8%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 52% backs the same picture with less variance.
Arouca vs Nacional both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 51%. Arouca find the net in 84% of simulated matches and Nacional in 59%.
What time does Arouca vs Nacional kick off?
Arouca vs Nacional starts at 15:30 UTC on Sunday, 1 November 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.