Liga Portugal
Round 9 Saturday, 24 October 2026
FT
AlvercaHomeWWLL
0:1Half-time 0:1
AroucaAwayDWWWW442927
Alverca winDrawArouca win
Liga Portugal
Round 9 Saturday, 24 October 2026
FT
AlvercaHomeWWLLAroucaAwayDWWWW- Kick-off Sat 24 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.67 1.51 : 1.16
- Favourite
- 44% Alverca
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 55% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Alverca vs Arouca betting odds by bookmaker
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.13 | 3.32 | 3.86 | 1.95 | 1.93 | 1.70 | 2.04 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Alverca to win partner prices
The top 1X2 prices for Alverca vs Arouca are 2.13 for Alverca at 1xBet, 3.32 for the draw at 1xBet and 3.86 for Arouca at 1xBet.
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 97.1%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.95 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.93 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.70 (1xBet) and no 2.04 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
73%
Our prediction
Alverca or draw
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
50% chance1.93
BTTSBoth teams to score
55% chance1.70
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
75% chance1.34fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
12% chance8.26fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Alverca, full-time Alverca
27% chance3.66fair
First halfFirst-half goal
70% chance1.43fair
Alverca vs Arouca prediction
Alverca vs Arouca prediction, who wins and at what price
Alverca host Arouca on Saturday, 24 October 2026 in the Liga Portugal, and the model has Alverca at 44%, the draw at 29% and Arouca at 27%: that is the Alverca vs Arouca prediction in one line.
Expected goals are 1.51 for Alverca and 1.16 for Arouca, a total of 2.67, which puts over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 55%.
One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.
Our main pick is alverca or draw at 73%. The best price in our comparison is 1.30 at 1xBet, which implies 77%, so the model sits 4 points below the market.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
Over the last 4 matches Alverca stand at 2 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats; Arouca show 4 wins, 1 draws and 0 defeats in 5.
Alverca vs Arouca goals, both teams to score and half-time forecast
Under 2.5 goals is rated 50% and under 3.5 72%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 75% and over 2.5 at 50%.
Under 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 50%; 1xBet pay 1.93.
The chance of both teams scoring is 55%, built from Alverca scoring in 78% of runs and Arouca in 69%; clean sheets come at 31% for Alverca and 22% for Arouca.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Alverca vs Arouca: 1-1 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.5%) and 2-1 (9.2%).
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Alverca, full-time Alverca leads at 27%. A goal before the break is rated 70%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market for Alverca vs Arouca
The grid built from 1.51 and 1.16 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Alverca to win44%2.13
Draw29%3.32
Arouca to win27%3.86
Alverca, draw no bet61%fair 1.63
Arouca, draw no bet39%fair 2.59
Double chance
Alverca or draw73%1.30
Arouca or draw57%1.78
Alverca or Arouca (no draw)71%1.37
Goals
Over 0.5 goals93%fair 1.07
Over 1.5 goals75%fair 1.34
Over 2.5 goals50%1.95
Over 3.5 goals28%fair 3.58
Over 4.5 goals13%fair 7.52
Under 1.5 goals25%fair 3.94
Under 2.5 goals50%1.93
Under 3.5 goals72%fair 1.39
BTTS
Both teams to score55%1.70
Not both teams to score45%2.04
Halves
First-half goal70%fair 1.43
Over 1.5 first-half goals34%fair 2.96
Second-half goal77%fair 1.30
Team goals
Alverca to score78%fair 1.28
Arouca to score69%fair 1.46
Alverca clean sheet31%fair 3.19
Arouca clean sheet22%fair 4.52
Alverca to win to nil29%fair 3.47
Arouca to win to nil20%fair 4.93
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-112.1%
1-010.5%
2-19.2%
0-18%
2-07.9%
1-27%
Half-time / full-time
Alverca / Alverca27.3%
Arouca / Arouca16.6%
Draw / Alverca15.5%
Draw / Draw15.4%
Draw / Arouca10.8%
Questions about Alverca vs Arouca
Who is favourite in Alverca vs Arouca?
The model gives Alverca the best chance at 44%, with the draw at 29%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
What is the correct score prediction for Alverca vs Arouca?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12.1%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 50%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Alverca vs Arouca both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 55%. Alverca find the net in 78% of simulated matches and Arouca in 69%.
What time does Alverca vs Arouca kick off?
Kick-off is 17:00 UTC on Saturday, 24 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.