Alverca vs Casa Pia prediction

Alverca vs Casa Pia prediction, who wins and at what price

Alverca are a narrow favourite in the Alverca vs Casa Pia prediction, rated 56% to win this Liga Portugal match on Saturday, 7 November 2026. Casa Pia sit at 20% and the draw at 25%.

Alverca are expected to score 1.72 and Casa Pia 0.93, so the total line is 2.65 goals; over 2.5 lands at 49% and BTTS at 51%.

The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.

Our main pick is alverca to win at 56%. The best price in our comparison is 1.72 at Melbet, which implies 58%, so the model sits 3 points below the market.

The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.

For a safer line, alverca or draw covers 80% of outcomes at 1.18.

Form check: Alverca have won 2 of their last 4 with 5 scored and 4 conceded, Casa Pia 3 of 5 scoring 5 and conceding 4.

Goals, BTTS and correct score for Alverca vs Casa Pia

On the goal lines Alverca vs Casa Pia reads 74% for over 1.5, 49% for over 2.5 and 28% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 51%.

The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 51%, best priced 1.88 at 22Bet.

BTTS yes stands at 51%. Alverca score in 82% of simulations against a 18% clean sheet for Casa Pia; Casa Pia score in 61% while Alverca shut them out 40% of the time.

Three scorelines carry the most weight for Alverca vs Casa Pia: 1-0 (12.2%), 1-1 (11.3%) and 2-0 (10.5%).

A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.

Half-time / full-time: half-time Alverca, full-time Alverca is the top combination at 35%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 70%.