Liga Portugal
Round 9 Saturday, 24 October 2026
FT
EstrelaHomeLLWLL
0:2Half-time 0:1
Casa PiaAwayWLWWL562519
Estrela winDrawCasa Pia win
Liga Portugal
Round 9 Saturday, 24 October 2026
FT
EstrelaHomeLLWLLCasa PiaAwayWLWWL- Kick-off Sat 24 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.75 1.77 : 0.98
- Favourite
- 56% Estrela
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 52% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Estrela vs Casa Pia odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.81 | 3.75 | 4.69 | 1.96 | 1.92 | 1.81 | 1.90 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Estrela to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best Estrela price at 1.81, 1xBet lead the draw at 3.75 and 1xBet have Casa Pia longest at 4.69.
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 96.9%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.96 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.92 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.81 (1xBet) and no 1.90 (1xBet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
56%
Our prediction
Estrela to win
Double chanceEstrela or draw
80% chance1.22
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
52% chance1.96
BTTSBoth teams to score
52% chance1.81
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
76% chance1.32fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-0
11% chance8.85fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Estrela, full-time Estrela
35% chance2.85fair
Estrela vs Casa Pia prediction
Our Estrela vs Casa Pia prediction and pick
The Estrela vs Casa Pia prediction leans to Estrela: 56% against 20% for Casa Pia, with 25% left for the draw, in the Liga Portugal on Saturday, 24 October 2026.
The goal expectancy is 2.75 in total, split 1.77 to Estrela and 0.98 to Casa Pia. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 52% and both teams to score 52%.
One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.
Estrela to win is the main selection, rated 56%. The best price in our comparison is 1.81 at 1xBet, which implies 55%, so the model sits 0 points above the market.
For a safer line, estrela or draw covers 80% of outcomes at 1.22.
Estrela average 0.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded across their last 5, Casa Pia 1.0 and 0.8 across 5.
How many goals in Estrela vs Casa Pia? Lines, BTTS and scorelines
Under 2.5 goals is rated 48% and under 3.5 70%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 76% and over 2.5 at 52%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 52%, best priced 1.96 at 1xBet.
BTTS yes stands at 52%. Estrela score in 83% of simulations against a 17% clean sheet for Casa Pia; Casa Pia score in 63% while Estrela shut them out 38% of the time.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Estrela vs Casa Pia: 1-0 (11.3%), 1-1 (11.1%) and 2-0 (10%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 11.3% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Estrela, full-time Estrela leads at 35%. A goal before the break is rated 71%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market for Estrela vs Casa Pia
The grid built from 1.77 and 0.98 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Estrela to win56%1.81
Draw25%3.75
Casa Pia to win20%4.69
Estrela, draw no bet74%fair 1.36
Casa Pia, draw no bet26%fair 3.80
Double chance
Estrela or draw80%1.22
Casa Pia or draw45%2.08
Estrela or Casa Pia (no draw)75%1.31
Goals
Over 0.5 goals94%fair 1.07
Over 1.5 goals76%fair 1.32
Over 2.5 goals52%1.96
Over 3.5 goals30%fair 3.37
Over 4.5 goals15%fair 6.90
Under 1.5 goals24%fair 4.17
Under 2.5 goals48%1.92
Under 3.5 goals70%fair 1.42
BTTS
Both teams to score52%1.81
Not both teams to score48%1.90
Halves
First-half goal71%fair 1.41
Over 1.5 first-half goals35%fair 2.85
Second-half goal78%fair 1.28
Team goals
Estrela to score83%fair 1.20
Casa Pia to score63%fair 1.60
Estrela clean sheet38%fair 2.67
Casa Pia clean sheet17%fair 5.88
Estrela to win to nil35%fair 2.90
Casa Pia to win to nil16%fair 6.37
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-011.3%
1-111.1%
2-010%
2-19.8%
0-06.4%
0-16.3%
Half-time / full-time
Estrela / Estrela35.1%
Draw / Estrela18%
Draw / Draw14.1%
Casa Pia / Casa Pia11.5%
Draw / Casa Pia8%
Questions about Estrela vs Casa Pia
Estrela or Casa Pia: which side does the model back?
The model gives Estrela the best chance at 56%, with the draw at 25%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
Estrela vs Casa Pia correct score: what does the model say?
1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 11.3%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 52% backs the same picture with less variance.
Will both teams score in Estrela vs Casa Pia?
The BTTS yes line is rated 52%. Estrela find the net in 83% of simulated matches and Casa Pia in 63%.
When do Estrela play Casa Pia?
Kick-off is 14:30 UTC on Saturday, 24 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.