Tondela vs Alverca prediction

Tondela vs Alverca prediction, who wins and at what price

Alverca are marginally ahead in the Tondela vs Alverca prediction, rated 42% to win this Taça de Portugal match on Sunday, 18 October 2026. Tondela sit at 28% and the draw at 31%.

The goal expectancy is 2.62 in total, split 1.16 to Tondela and 1.46 to Alverca. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 49% and both teams to score 55%.

One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.

Alverca or draw is the main selection, rated 72%. At 1.29 with 1xBet the market prices it at 78%, against 72% from the model.

The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.

The draw is live at 31%, above the one-in-four baseline, which is why the double chance beats the straight win here.

Over the last 5 matches Tondela stand at 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats; Alverca show 2 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in 4.

How many goals in Tondela vs Alverca? Lines, BTTS and scorelines

Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 74%, over 2.5 at 49%, over 3.5 at 27%; under 2.5 is 52% and under 3.5 is 73%.

The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 52%, best priced 1.82 at 1xBet.

The chance of both teams scoring is 55%, built from Tondela scoring in 69% of runs and Alverca in 77%; clean sheets come at 23% for Tondela and 31% for Alverca.

Three scorelines carry the most weight for Tondela vs Alverca: 1-1 (12.3%), 0-1 (10.6%) and 1-2 (9%).

A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.

Half-time / full-time: half-time Alverca, full-time Alverca is the top combination at 26%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 69%.