Eredivisie
Round 9 Friday, 16 October 2026
FT
HeerenveenHomeLWWWW
4:0Half-time 1:0
ExcelsiorAwayLLLWL612118
Heerenveen winDrawExcelsior win
Eredivisie
Round 9 Friday, 16 October 2026
FT
HeerenveenHomeLWWWWExcelsiorAwayLLLWL- Kick-off Fri 16 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.58 2.34 : 1.24
- Favourite
- 61% Heerenveen
- Over 2.5 goals
- 68% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 66% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Best odds for Heerenveen vs Excelsior
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.59 | 4.46 | 5.31 | 1.34 | 2.78 | 1.44 | 2.60 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Heerenveen to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best Heerenveen price at 1.59, 1xBet lead the draw at 4.46 and 1xBet have Excelsior longest at 5.31.
The best-price payout across the three results is 96%, several points better than any single book offers here.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.34 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.78 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.44 (1xBet) and no 2.60 (1xBet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
61%
Our prediction
Heerenveen to win
Double chanceHeerenveen or draw
82% chance1.17
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
68% chance1.34
BTTSBoth teams to score
66% chance1.44
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
87% chance1.15fair
ScorelineCorrect score 2-1
10% chance10.53fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Heerenveen, full-time Heerenveen
41% chance2.44fair
Heerenveen vs Excelsior prediction
Our Heerenveen vs Excelsior prediction and pick
The Heerenveen vs Excelsior prediction leans to Heerenveen: 61% against 18% for Excelsior, with 21% left for the draw, in the Eredivisie on Friday, 16 October 2026.
The goal expectancy is 3.58 in total, split 2.34 to Heerenveen and 1.24 to Excelsior. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 68% and both teams to score 66%.
One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.
The pick for Heerenveen vs Excelsior is heerenveen to win, a 61% chance. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.59. That price implies 63%, 2 points over the model figure.
For a safer line, heerenveen or draw covers 82% of outcomes at 1.17.
With the draw down at 21%, draw no bet costs little insurance and the 12 line keeps most of the win price.
Heerenveen average 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded across their last 5, Excelsior 0.8 and 3.8 across 5.
Heerenveen vs Excelsior over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score
Under 2.5 goals is rated 32% and under 3.5 52%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 87% and over 2.5 at 68%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 68%, best priced 1.34 at 1xBet.
The chance of both teams scoring is 66%, built from Heerenveen scoring in 90% of runs and Excelsior in 71%; clean sheets come at 29% for Heerenveen and 10% for Excelsior.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 66%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Heerenveen vs Excelsior: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (8.1%) and 2-0 (7.6%).
With the top scoreline at 9.5%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Heerenveen vs Excelsior; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Heerenveen, full-time Heerenveen leads at 41%. A goal before the break is rated 80%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market rated for Heerenveen vs Excelsior
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Heerenveen vs Excelsior, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Heerenveen to win61%1.59
Draw21%4.46
Excelsior to win18%5.31
Heerenveen, draw no bet77%fair 1.30
Excelsior, draw no bet23%fair 4.39
Double chance
Heerenveen or draw82%1.17
Excelsior or draw39%2.42
Heerenveen or Excelsior (no draw)79%1.22
Goals
Over 0.5 goals97%fair 1.03
Over 1.5 goals87%fair 1.15
Over 2.5 goals68%1.34
Over 3.5 goals48%fair 2.08
Over 4.5 goals29%fair 3.45
Under 1.5 goals13%fair 7.81
Under 2.5 goals32%2.78
Under 3.5 goals52%fair 1.92
BTTS
Both teams to score66%1.44
Not both teams to score34%2.60
Halves
First-half goal80%fair 1.25
Over 1.5 first-half goals48%fair 2.09
Second-half goal86%fair 1.16
Team goals
Heerenveen to score90%fair 1.11
Excelsior to score71%fair 1.41
Heerenveen clean sheet29%fair 3.46
Excelsior clean sheet10%fair 10.42
Heerenveen to win to nil27%fair 3.76
Excelsior to win to nil9%fair 11.24
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
2-19.5%
1-18.1%
2-07.6%
3-17.4%
1-06.5%
3-06%
Half-time / full-time
Heerenveen / Heerenveen40.9%
Draw / Heerenveen17.1%
Excelsior / Excelsior10.8%
Draw / Draw9.8%
Draw / Excelsior6.6%
Questions about Heerenveen vs Excelsior
Who is favourite in Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
The model gives Heerenveen the best chance at 61%, with the draw at 21%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
What scoreline is most likely in Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
2-1 is the most likely scoreline at 9.5%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 68% backs the same picture with less variance.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
The BTTS yes line is rated 66%. Heerenveen find the net in 90% of simulated matches and Excelsior in 71%.
When is Heerenveen vs Excelsior and where is the result shown?
Heerenveen vs Excelsior starts at 18:00 UTC on Friday, 16 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.