KNVB Beker
MVVHomeLLDLL
0:3Half-time 0:1
ExcelsiorAwayLLLWL141868
MVV winDrawExcelsior win
MVVHomeLLDLLExcelsiorAwayLLLWL- Kick-off Wed 28 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.59 1.08 : 2.51
- Favourite
- 68% Excelsior
- Over 2.5 goals
- 69% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 62% model chance
- Prices compared
- 5 in the odds table
MVV vs Excelsior betting odds by bookmaker
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 6.26 | 4.75 | 1.41 | 1.35 | 2.74 | 1.53 | 2.35 | Bet |
 22Bet | 6.02 | 4.35 | 1.49 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.62 | 2.21 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 6.20 | 4.50 | 1.43 | 1.51 | 2.42 | 1.64 | 2.08 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 6.02 | 4.35 | 1.49 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.62 | 2.21 | Bet |
 Melbet | 6.02 | 4.35 | 1.49 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.62 | 2.21 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Excelsior to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best MVV price at 6.26, 1xBet lead the draw at 4.75 and Melbet have Excelsior longest at 1.49.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 95.8%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.51 (BC.Game) and under 2.5 2.74 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.64 (BC.Game) and no 2.35 (1xBet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
68%
Our prediction
Excelsior to win
Double chanceExcelsior or draw
86% chance1.11
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
69% chance1.51
BTTSBoth teams to score
62% chance1.64
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
87% chance1.15fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-2
9% chance10.64fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Excelsior, full-time Excelsior
46% chance2.16fair
MVV vs Excelsior prediction
MVV vs Excelsior prediction and best bet
MVV host Excelsior on Wednesday, 28 October 2026 in the KNVB Beker, and the model has Excelsior at 68%, the draw at 18% and MVV at 14%: that is the MVV vs Excelsior prediction in one line.
The goal expectancy is 3.59 in total, split 1.08 to MVV and 2.51 to Excelsior. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 69% and both teams to score 62%.
One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.
The pick for MVV vs Excelsior is excelsior to win, a 68% chance. Melbet offer the top price at 1.49. That price implies 67%, 0 points under the model figure.
For a safer line, excelsior or draw covers 86% of outcomes at 1.11.
With the draw down at 18%, draw no bet costs little insurance and the 12 line keeps most of the win price.
Form check: MVV have won 0 of their last 5 with 4 scored and 13 conceded, Excelsior 1 of 5 scoring 4 and conceding 19.
Goals forecast for MVV vs Excelsior with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
On the goal lines MVV vs Excelsior reads 87% for over 1.5, 69% for over 2.5 and 48% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 31%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 69%, best priced 1.51 at BC.Game.
Both teams to score is 62%: MVV find the net in 66% of simulated matches and Excelsior in 92%. MVV keep a clean sheet 8% of the time and Excelsior 34%.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 62%.
The most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 9.4%, followed by 0-2 (8.7%) and 1-3 (7.9%).
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Excelsior, full-time Excelsior leads at 46%. A goal before the break is rated 80%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market rated for MVV vs Excelsior
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for MVV vs Excelsior, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
MVV to win14%6.26
Draw18%4.75
Excelsior to win68%1.49
MVV, draw no bet17%fair 5.92
Excelsior, draw no bet83%fair 1.20
Double chance
MVV or draw32%2.70
Excelsior or draw86%1.11
MVV or Excelsior (no draw)82%1.19
Goals
Over 0.5 goals97%fair 1.03
Over 1.5 goals87%fair 1.15
Over 2.5 goals69%1.51
Over 3.5 goals48%fair 2.07
Over 4.5 goals29%fair 3.44
Under 1.5 goals13%fair 7.87
Under 2.5 goals31%2.74
Under 3.5 goals52%fair 1.93
BTTS
Both teams to score62%1.64
Not both teams to score39%2.35
Halves
First-half goal80%fair 1.25
Over 1.5 first-half goals48%fair 2.08
Second-half goal86%fair 1.16
Team goals
MVV to score66%fair 1.52
Excelsior to score92%fair 1.09
MVV clean sheet8%fair 12.35
Excelsior clean sheet34%fair 2.94
MVV to win to nil8%fair 13.33
Excelsior to win to nil31%fair 3.21
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-29.4%
0-28.7%
1-37.9%
1-17.5%
0-37.3%
0-16.9%
Half-time / full-time
Excelsior / Excelsior46.4%
Draw / Excelsior18.2%
Draw / Draw9%
MVV / MVV8%
Draw / MVV5.2%
Questions about MVV vs Excelsior
MVV or Excelsior: which side does the model back?
The model gives Excelsior the best chance at 68%, with the draw at 18%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
What is the correct score prediction for MVV vs Excelsior?
1-2 is the most likely scoreline at 9.4%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 69%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Excelsior?
The BTTS yes line is rated 62%. MVV find the net in 66% of simulated matches and Excelsior in 92%.
When do MVV play Excelsior?
Kick-off is 19:00 UTC on Wednesday, 28 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.