Serie B
AscoliHomeDDWWD
1:1Half-time 1:1
EmpoliAwayLDLLD522721
Ascoli winDrawEmpoli win
AscoliHomeDDWWDEmpoliAwayLDLLD- Kick-off Sat 17 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.75 1.72 : 1.03
- Favourite
- 52% Ascoli
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 55% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Best odds for Ascoli vs Empoli
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.89 | 3.48 | 3.94 | 1.79 | 1.95 | 1.68 | 2.06 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Ascoli to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best Ascoli price at 1.89, 1xBet lead the draw at 3.48 and 1xBet have Empoli longest at 3.94.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 93.4%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.79 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.95 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.68 (1xBet) and no 2.06 (1xBet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
52%
Our prediction
Ascoli to win
Double chanceAscoli or draw
79% chance1.22
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
51% chance1.79
BTTSBoth teams to score
55% chance1.68
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
76% chance1.32fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
11% chance8.85fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Ascoli, full-time Ascoli
33% chance3.00fair
Ascoli vs Empoli odds movement
Ascoli win1.89unchanged
Draw3.48-0.07
Empoli win3.94-0.63
Over 2.5 goals1.79-0.11
Under 2.5 goals1.95-0.04
Best price in the comparison at each refresh since the match was first priced on 1 Nov, 12:14 UTC. A shortening price means money has come for that outcome.
Ascoli vs Empoli prediction
Our Ascoli vs Empoli prediction and pick
Ascoli are a narrow favourite in the Ascoli vs Empoli prediction, rated 52% to win this Serie B match on Saturday, 17 October 2026. Empoli sit at 21% and the draw at 27%.
The goal expectancy is 2.75 in total, split 1.72 to Ascoli and 1.03 to Empoli. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 51% and both teams to score 55%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
The pick for Ascoli vs Empoli is ascoli to win, a 52% chance. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.89. That price implies 53%, 1 points over the model figure.
Ascoli or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 79% chance, priced 1.22.
Ascoli average 1.8 goals scored and 0.4 conceded across their last 5, Empoli 1.2 and 2.2 across 5.
Goals, BTTS and correct score for Ascoli vs Empoli
On the goal lines Ascoli vs Empoli reads 76% for over 1.5, 51% for over 2.5 and 30% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 49%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 51%, best priced 1.79 at 1xBet.
The chance of both teams scoring is 55%, built from Ascoli scoring in 82% of runs and Empoli in 64%; clean sheets come at 36% for Ascoli and 18% for Empoli.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Ascoli vs Empoli: 1-1 (11.3%), 1-0 (11%) and 2-1 (9.7%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 11.3% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Ascoli, full-time Ascoli leads at 33%. A goal before the break is rated 71%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market for Ascoli vs Empoli
The grid built from 1.72 and 1.03 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Ascoli to win52%1.89
Draw27%3.48
Empoli to win21%3.94
Ascoli, draw no bet72%fair 1.40
Empoli, draw no bet28%fair 3.52
Double chance
Ascoli or draw79%1.22
Empoli or draw48%1.85
Ascoli or Empoli (no draw)73%1.28
Goals
Over 0.5 goals94%fair 1.07
Over 1.5 goals76%fair 1.32
Over 2.5 goals51%1.79
Over 3.5 goals30%fair 3.37
Over 4.5 goals15%fair 6.90
Under 1.5 goals24%fair 4.17
Under 2.5 goals49%1.95
Under 3.5 goals70%fair 1.42
BTTS
Both teams to score55%1.68
Not both teams to score45%2.06
Halves
First-half goal71%fair 1.41
Over 1.5 first-half goals35%fair 2.85
Second-half goal78%fair 1.28
Team goals
Ascoli to score82%fair 1.22
Empoli to score64%fair 1.56
Ascoli clean sheet36%fair 2.80
Empoli clean sheet18%fair 5.59
Ascoli to win to nil33%fair 3.05
Empoli to win to nil17%fair 6.06
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-111.3%
1-011%
2-19.7%
2-09.5%
0-16.6%
0-06.4%
Half-time / full-time
Ascoli / Ascoli33.3%
Draw / Ascoli17.5%
Draw / Draw14.3%
Empoli / Empoli12.6%
Draw / Empoli8.6%
Questions about Ascoli vs Empoli
Ascoli or Empoli: which side does the model back?
The model gives Ascoli the best chance at 52%, with the draw at 27%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
Ascoli vs Empoli correct score: what does the model say?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 11.3%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 51%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Is BTTS likely in Ascoli vs Empoli?
The BTTS yes line is rated 55%. Ascoli find the net in 82% of simulated matches and Empoli in 64%.
What time does Ascoli vs Empoli kick off?
Ascoli vs Empoli starts at 13:00 UTC on Saturday, 17 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.