Bundesliga
Round 6 Saturday, 17 October 2026
FT
Union BerlinHomeWDDLD
0:0Half-time 0:0
Borussia DortmundAwayDWWWD162163
Union Berlin winDrawBorussia Dortmund win
Bundesliga
Round 6 Saturday, 17 October 2026
FT
Union BerlinHomeWDDLDBorussia DortmundAwayDWWWD- Kick-off Sat 17 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.36 1.09 : 2.27
- Favourite
- 63% Borussia Dortmund
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 61% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 5.70 | 4.72 | 1.59 | 1.44 | 2.53 | 1.55 | 2.32 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Borussia Dortmund to win partner prices
The top 1X2 prices for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund are 5.70 for Union Berlin at 1xBet, 4.72 for the draw at 1xBet and 1.59 for Borussia Dortmund at 1xBet.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 98.4%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.44 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.53 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.55 (1xBet) and no 2.32 (1xBet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
63%
Our prediction
Borussia Dortmund to win
Double chanceBorussia Dortmund or draw
84% chance1.19
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
64% chance1.44
BTTSBoth teams to score
61% chance1.55
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
85% chance1.18fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-2
10% chance10.20fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Borussia Dortmund, full-time Borussia Dortmund
42% chance2.37fair
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund prediction
Our Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund prediction and pick
Borussia Dortmund are the clear favourite in the Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund prediction, rated 63% to win this Bundesliga match on Saturday, 17 October 2026. Union Berlin sit at 16% and the draw at 21%.
Expected goals are 1.09 for Union Berlin and 2.27 for Borussia Dortmund, a total of 3.36, which puts over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 61%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
The pick for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund is borussia Dortmund to win, a 63% chance. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.59. That price implies 63%, 1 points under the model figure.
For a safer line, borussia Dortmund or draw covers 84% of outcomes at 1.19.
The draw sits at only 21%, so the 12 double chance and draw no bet keep more of the price than usual.
Form check: Union Berlin have won 1 of their last 5 with 3 scored and 7 conceded, Borussia Dortmund 3 of 5 scoring 8 and conceding 5.
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score
On the goal lines Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund reads 85% for over 1.5, 64% for over 2.5 and 43% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 36%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 64%; 1xBet pay 1.44.
Both teams to score is 61%: Union Berlin find the net in 66% of simulated matches and Borussia Dortmund in 90%. Union Berlin keep a clean sheet 10% of the time and Borussia Dortmund 34%.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 61%.
Correct score: 1-2 leads at 9.8%, then 0-2 at 8.9% and 1-1 at 8.6%.
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Borussia Dortmund, full-time Borussia Dortmund is the top combination at 42%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 78%.
Every market rated for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Union Berlin to win16%5.70
Draw21%4.72
Borussia Dortmund to win63%1.59
Union Berlin, draw no bet20%fair 4.93
Borussia Dortmund, draw no bet80%fair 1.25
Double chance
Union Berlin or draw37%2.58
Borussia Dortmund or draw84%1.19
Union Berlin or Borussia Dortmund (no draw)80%1.24
Goals
Over 0.5 goals97%fair 1.04
Over 1.5 goals85%fair 1.18
Over 2.5 goals64%1.44
Over 3.5 goals43%fair 2.31
Over 4.5 goals25%fair 4.03
Under 1.5 goals15%fair 6.58
Under 2.5 goals36%2.53
Under 3.5 goals57%fair 1.76
BTTS
Both teams to score61%1.55
Not both teams to score39%2.32
Halves
First-half goal78%fair 1.28
Over 1.5 first-half goals45%fair 2.24
Second-half goal84%fair 1.19
Team goals
Union Berlin to score66%fair 1.51
Borussia Dortmund to score90%fair 1.11
Union Berlin clean sheet10%fair 9.71
Borussia Dortmund clean sheet34%fair 2.98
Union Berlin to win to nil10%fair 10.53
Borussia Dortmund to win to nil31%fair 3.24
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-29.8%
0-28.9%
1-18.6%
0-17.9%
1-37.4%
0-36.8%
Half-time / full-time
Borussia Dortmund / Borussia Dortmund42.2%
Draw / Borussia Dortmund18%
Draw / Draw10.3%
Union Berlin / Union Berlin9.5%
Draw / Union Berlin6.2%
Questions about Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund
Who is favourite in Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
The model gives Borussia Dortmund the best chance at 63%, with the draw at 21%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
What is the correct score prediction for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
1-2 is the most likely scoreline at 9.8%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 64%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 61%. Union Berlin find the net in 66% of simulated matches and Borussia Dortmund in 90%.
When is Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund and where is the result shown?
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund starts at 13:30 UTC on Saturday, 17 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.