Bundesliga
Round 6 Saturday, 17 October 2026
FT
FC Schalke 04HomeLLDLL
0:1Half-time 0:1
FSV Mainz 05AwayLWLLL322741
FC Schalke 04 winDrawFSV Mainz 05 win
Bundesliga
Round 6 Saturday, 17 October 2026
FT
FC Schalke 04HomeLLDLLFSV Mainz 05AwayLWLLL- Kick-off Sat 17 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.97 1.40 : 1.57
- Favourite
- 41% FSV Mainz 05
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 62% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 betting odds by bookmaker
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 3.02 | 3.64 | 2.44 | 1.73 | 2.28 | 1.52 | 2.40 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
FSV Mainz 05 to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best FC Schalke 04 price at 3.02, 1xBet lead the draw at 3.64 and 1xBet have FSV Mainz 05 longest at 2.44.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 98.5%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.73 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.28 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.52 (1xBet) and no 2.40 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
73%
Our prediction
FC Schalke 04 or FSV Mainz 05 (no draw)
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
57% chance1.73
BTTSBoth teams to score
62% chance1.52
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
80% chance1.26fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
11% chance8.85fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time FSV Mainz 05, full-time FSV Mainz 05
25% chance4.00fair
First halfFirst-half goal
74% chance1.36fair
FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction
FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction and best bet
FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction for the Bundesliga on Saturday, 17 October 2026: the model makes FSV Mainz 05 marginally ahead at 41%, with the draw at 27% and FC Schalke 04 at 32%.
FC Schalke 04 are expected to score 1.40 and FSV Mainz 05 1.57, so the total line is 2.97 goals; over 2.5 lands at 57% and BTTS at 62%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
The pick for FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 is fC Schalke 04 or FSV Mainz 05 (no draw), a 73% chance. At 1.35 with 1xBet the market prices it at 74%, against 73% from the model.
Over the last 5 matches FC Schalke 04 stand at 0 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; FSV Mainz 05 show 1 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats in 5.
Goals, BTTS and correct score for FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05
On the goal lines FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 reads 80% for over 1.5, 57% for over 2.5 and 35% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 44%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 57%; 1xBet pay 1.73.
The chance of both teams scoring is 62%, built from FC Schalke 04 scoring in 75% of runs and FSV Mainz 05 in 79%; clean sheets come at 21% for FC Schalke 04 and 25% for FSV Mainz 05.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 62%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05: 1-1 (11.3%), 1-2 (8.9%) and 0-1 (8.1%).
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
Half-time / full-time: half-time FSV Mainz 05, full-time FSV Mainz 05 is the top combination at 25%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 74%.
All markets, FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 32% / 27% / 41% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
FC Schalke 04 to win32%3.02
Draw27%3.64
FSV Mainz 05 to win41%2.44
FC Schalke 04, draw no bet44%fair 2.26
FSV Mainz 05, draw no bet56%fair 1.80
Double chance
FC Schalke 04 or draw60%1.65
FSV Mainz 05 or draw68%1.46
FC Schalke 04 or FSV Mainz 05 (no draw)73%1.35
Goals
Over 0.5 goals95%fair 1.05
Over 1.5 goals80%fair 1.26
Over 2.5 goals57%1.73
Over 3.5 goals35%fair 2.89
Over 4.5 goals18%fair 5.56
Under 1.5 goals20%fair 4.90
Under 2.5 goals44%2.28
Under 3.5 goals65%fair 1.53
BTTS
Both teams to score62%1.52
Not both teams to score39%2.40
Halves
First-half goal74%fair 1.36
Over 1.5 first-half goals39%fair 2.59
Second-half goal81%fair 1.24
Team goals
FC Schalke 04 to score75%fair 1.33
FSV Mainz 05 to score79%fair 1.26
FC Schalke 04 clean sheet21%fair 4.81
FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet25%fair 4.05
FC Schalke 04 to win to nil19%fair 5.24
FSV Mainz 05 to win to nil23%fair 4.41
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-111.3%
1-28.9%
0-18.1%
2-17.9%
1-07.2%
0-26.3%
Half-time / full-time
FSV Mainz 05 / FSV Mainz 0525%
FC Schalke 04 / FC Schalke 0420%
Draw / FSV Mainz 0513.9%
Draw / Draw13.7%
Draw / FC Schalke 0411.8%
Questions about FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05
Who is favourite in FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?
The model gives FSV Mainz 05 the best chance at 41%, with the draw at 27%. Under 50% the favourite fails to win more often than it wins, which is why the double chance is the safer line here.
FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 correct score: what does the model say?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 11.3%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 57% backs the same picture with less variance.
Is BTTS likely in FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?
The BTTS yes line is rated 62%. FC Schalke 04 find the net in 75% of simulated matches and FSV Mainz 05 in 79%.
When do FC Schalke 04 play FSV Mainz 05?
Kick-off is 13:30 UTC on Saturday, 17 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.