Bundesliga
Round 6 Saturday, 17 October 2026
FT
Bayern MünchenHomeWDWWD
6:1Half-time 3:0
RB LeipzigAwayLLWWW82117
Bayern München winDrawRB Leipzig win
Bundesliga
Round 6 Saturday, 17 October 2026
FT
Bayern MünchenHomeWDWWDRB LeipzigAwayLLWWW- Kick-off Sat 17 Oct
- Expected goals
- 5.55 4.17 : 1.38
- Favourite
- 82% Bayern München
- Over 2.5 goals
- 90% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 71% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Best odds for Bayern München vs RB Leipzig
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.24 | 7.80 | 12.40 | 1.10 | 6.40 | 1.35 | 2.98 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Bayern München to win partner prices
The top 1X2 prices for Bayern München vs RB Leipzig are 1.24 for Bayern München at 1xBet, 7.80 for the draw at 1xBet and 12.40 for RB Leipzig at 1xBet.
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 98.5%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.10 (1xBet) and under 2.5 6.40 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.35 (1xBet) and no 2.98 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
82%
Our prediction
Bayern München to win
Double chanceBayern München or draw
93% chance1.07
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
90% chance1.10
BTTSBoth teams to score
71% chance1.35
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
96% chance1.04fair
ScorelineCorrect score 4-1
7% chance14.71fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Bayern München, full-time Bayern München
63% chance1.59fair
Bayern München vs RB Leipzig prediction
Our Bayern München vs RB Leipzig prediction and pick
Bayern München are a strong favourite in the Bayern München vs RB Leipzig prediction, rated 82% to win this Bundesliga match on Saturday, 17 October 2026. RB Leipzig sit at 8% and the draw at 11%.
Bayern München are expected to score 4.17 and RB Leipzig 1.38, so the total line is 5.55 goals; over 2.5 lands at 90% and BTTS at 71%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Our main pick is bayern München to win at 82%. The best price in our comparison is 1.24 at 1xBet, which implies 81%, so the model sits 1 points above the market.
Bayern München or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 93% chance, priced 1.07.
With the draw down at 11%, draw no bet costs little insurance and the 12 line keeps most of the win price.
Over the last 5 matches Bayern München stand at 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats; RB Leipzig show 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in 5.
Goals forecast for Bayern München vs RB Leipzig with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
Under 2.5 goals is rated 10% and under 3.5 21%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 96% and over 2.5 at 90%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 90%, best priced 1.10 at 1xBet.
Both teams to score is 71%: Bayern München find the net in 99% of simulated matches and RB Leipzig in 75%. Bayern München keep a clean sheet 25% of the time and RB Leipzig 2%.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 71%.
The most likely scoreline is 4-1 at 6.8%, followed by 3-1 (6.5%) and 5-1 (5.6%).
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Bayern München, full-time Bayern München is the top combination at 63%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 92%.
Every market rated for Bayern München vs RB Leipzig
The grid built from 4.17 and 1.38 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Bayern München to win82%1.24
Draw11%7.80
RB Leipzig to win8%12.40
Bayern München, draw no bet92%fair 1.09
RB Leipzig, draw no bet8%fair 11.90
Double chance
Bayern München or draw93%1.07
RB Leipzig or draw18%4.79
Bayern München or RB Leipzig (no draw)89%1.13
Goals
Over 0.5 goals99%fair 1.02
Over 1.5 goals96%fair 1.04
Over 2.5 goals90%1.10
Over 3.5 goals79%fair 1.26
Over 4.5 goals64%fair 1.56
Under 1.5 goals4%fair 27.78
Under 2.5 goals10%6.40
Under 3.5 goals21%fair 4.83
BTTS
Both teams to score71%1.35
Not both teams to score29%2.98
Halves
First-half goal92%fair 1.09
Over 1.5 first-half goals71%fair 1.40
Second-half goal95%fair 1.05
Team goals
Bayern München to score99%fair 1.02
RB Leipzig to score75%fair 1.34
Bayern München clean sheet25%fair 3.97
RB Leipzig clean sheet2%fair 66.67
Bayern München to win to nil23%fair 4.33
RB Leipzig to win to nil1%fair 71.43
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.02
Even number of goals51%fair 1.98
Most likely scores
4-16.8%
3-16.5%
5-15.6%
4-04.9%
3-04.7%
2-14.7%
Half-time / full-time
Bayern München / Bayern München63%
Draw / Bayern München14.9%
RB Leipzig / Bayern München4.8%
RB Leipzig / RB Leipzig4%
Draw / Draw3.6%
Questions about Bayern München vs RB Leipzig
Who is favourite in Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?
The model gives Bayern München the best chance at 82%, with the draw at 11%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
What scoreline is most likely in Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?
4-1 is the most likely scoreline at 6.8%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 90%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Is BTTS likely in Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?
The BTTS yes line is rated 71%. Bayern München find the net in 99% of simulated matches and RB Leipzig in 75%.
When is Bayern München vs RB Leipzig and where is the result shown?
Kick-off is 16:30 UTC on Saturday, 17 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.