Ligue 1
Round 10 Saturday, 7 November 2026
Kick-off
Paris Saint GermainHomeWWWWW
Sat 7 Nov
Estac TroyesAwayLLLDW8695
Paris Saint Germain winDrawEstac Troyes win
Ligue 1
Round 10 Saturday, 7 November 2026
Kick-off
Paris Saint GermainHomeWWWWWEstac TroyesAwayLLLDW- Kick-off Sat 7 Nov
- Expected goals
- 4.10 3.35 : 0.75
- Favourite
- 86% Paris Saint Germain
- Over 2.5 goals
- 75% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 51% model chance
- Prices compared
- 6 in the odds table
Best odds for Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.16 | 9.85 | 18.50 | 1.28 | 3.58 | 1.83 | 1.89 | Bet |
 22Bet | 1.12 | 9.50 | 17.00 | 1.29 | 3.58 | 1.83 | 1.89 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 1.14 | 8.60 | 15.00 | 1.26 | 3.75 | 1.86 | 1.83 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 1.16 | 9.85 | 18.50 | 1.29 | 3.58 | 1.83 | 1.89 | Bet |
 Melbet | 1.16 | 9.85 | 18.50 | 1.29 | 3.58 | 1.83 | 1.89 | Bet |
 Stake | 1.11 | 9.20 | 16.00 | - | - | 1.86 | 1.81 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Paris Saint Germain to win partner prices
Melbet pay the best Paris Saint Germain price at 1.16, Melbet lead the draw at 9.85 and Melbet have Estac Troyes longest at 18.50.
The best-price payout across the three results is 98.5%, several points better than any single book offers here.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.29 (22Bet) and under 2.5 3.75 (BC.Game); both teams to score yes pays 1.86 (Stake) and no 1.89 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
86%
Our prediction
Paris Saint Germain to win
Double chanceParis Saint Germain or draw
94% chance1.04
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
75% chance1.29
BTTSBoth teams to score
51% chance1.86
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
91% chance1.10fair
ScorelineCorrect score 3-0
10% chance9.62fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Paris Saint Germain, full-time Paris Saint Germain
64% chance1.56fair
Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes prediction
Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes prediction and best bet
Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes prediction for the Ligue 1 on Saturday, 7 November 2026: the model makes Paris Saint Germain a strong favourite at 86%, with the draw at 9% and Estac Troyes at 6%.
Paris Saint Germain are expected to score 3.35 and Estac Troyes 0.75, so the total line is 4.10 goals; over 2.5 lands at 75% and BTTS at 51%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Our main pick is paris Saint Germain to win at 86%. At 1.16 with Melbet the market prices it at 86%, against 86% from the model.
Paris Saint Germain or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 94% chance, priced 1.04.
The draw sits at only 9%, so the 12 double chance and draw no bet keep more of the price than usual.
Paris Saint Germain average 3.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded across their last 5, Estac Troyes 0.6 and 1.4 across 5.
Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 91%, over 2.5 at 75%, over 3.5 at 58%; under 2.5 is 25% and under 3.5 is 42%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 75%; 22Bet pay 1.29.
Both teams to score is 51%: Paris Saint Germain find the net in 97% of simulated matches and Estac Troyes in 53%. Paris Saint Germain keep a clean sheet 47% of the time and Estac Troyes 4%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes: 3-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (9.3%) and 4-0 (8.7%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 10.4% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Paris Saint Germain, full-time Paris Saint Germain is the top combination at 64%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 84%.
All markets, Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes
The grid built from 3.35 and 0.75 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Paris Saint Germain to win86%1.16
Draw9%9.85
Estac Troyes to win6%18.50
Paris Saint Germain, draw no bet94%fair 1.07
Estac Troyes, draw no bet6%fair 15.63
Double chance
Paris Saint Germain or draw94%1.04
Estac Troyes or draw15%6.43
Paris Saint Germain or Estac Troyes (no draw)92%1.09
Goals
Over 0.5 goals98%fair 1.02
Over 1.5 goals91%fair 1.10
Over 2.5 goals75%1.29
Over 3.5 goals58%fair 1.72
Over 4.5 goals39%fair 2.58
Under 1.5 goals9%fair 11.49
Under 2.5 goals25%3.75
Under 3.5 goals42%fair 2.40
BTTS
Both teams to score51%1.86
Not both teams to score49%1.89
Halves
First-half goal84%fair 1.19
Over 1.5 first-half goals55%fair 1.82
Second-half goal90%fair 1.12
Team goals
Paris Saint Germain to score97%fair 1.04
Estac Troyes to score53%fair 1.89
Paris Saint Germain clean sheet47%fair 2.12
Estac Troyes clean sheet4%fair 28.57
Paris Saint Germain to win to nil44%fair 2.30
Estac Troyes to win to nil3%fair 31.25
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
3-010.4%
2-09.3%
4-08.7%
3-17.8%
2-17%
4-16.5%
Half-time / full-time
Paris Saint Germain / Paris Saint Germain64.2%
Draw / Paris Saint Germain18%
Draw / Draw5%
Estac Troyes / Paris Saint Germain3.3%
Estac Troyes / Estac Troyes2.6%
Questions about Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes
Paris Saint Germain or Estac Troyes: which side does the model back?
The model gives Paris Saint Germain the best chance at 86%, with the draw at 9%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes correct score: what does the model say?
3-0 is the most likely scoreline at 10.4%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 75% backs the same picture with less variance.
Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 51%. Paris Saint Germain find the net in 97% of simulated matches and Estac Troyes in 53%.
When do Paris Saint Germain play Estac Troyes?
Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes starts at 19:45 UTC on Saturday, 7 November 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.