Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon prediction

Our Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon prediction and pick

Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon prediction for the Ligue 1 on Monday, 26 October 2026: the model makes Paris Saint Germain the clear favourite at 70%, with the draw at 17% and Lyon at 13%.

Paris Saint Germain are expected to score 2.63 and Lyon 1.06, so the total line is 3.69 goals; over 2.5 lands at 71% and BTTS at 61%.

Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.

The pick for Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon is paris Saint Germain to win, a 70% chance. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.35. That price implies 74%, 4 points over the model figure.

At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon.

Paris Saint Germain or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 87% chance, priced 1.11.

With the draw down at 17%, draw no bet costs little insurance and the 12 line keeps most of the win price.

Over the last 5 matches Paris Saint Germain stand at 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats; Lyon show 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in 5.

Goals forecast for Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline

On the goal lines Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon reads 88% for over 1.5, 71% for over 2.5 and 50% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 30%.

The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 71%, best priced 1.37 at 1xBet.

Both teams to score is 61%: Paris Saint Germain find the net in 93% of simulated matches and Lyon in 65%. Paris Saint Germain keep a clean sheet 35% of the time and Lyon 7%.

Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 61%.

Correct score: 2-1 leads at 9.2%, then 2-0 at 8.6% and 3-1 at 8%.

With the top scoreline at 9.2%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.

In the half-time / full-time market half-time Paris Saint Germain, full-time Paris Saint Germain leads at 49%. A goal before the break is rated 81%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.