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Live 6 UTC
Ligue 1 Round 7 Saturday, 17 October 2026 FT
Estac TroyesHomeLLLDW
1:3Half-time 1:2
LensAwayLWLWL
232552
Estac Troyes winDrawLens win
Kick-off
Sat 17 Oct
Expected goals
3.03
1.18 : 1.85
Favourite
52%
Lens
Over 2.5 goals
58%
model chance
Both teams to score
60%
model chance
Prices compared
1
in the odds table

Best odds for Estac Troyes vs Lens

Bookmaker1X2Over 2.5Under 2.5BTTS yesBTTS no
1xBet4.263.941.901.722.301.582.26Bet

Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.

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Lens to win partner prices

The top 1X2 prices for Estac Troyes vs Lens are 4.26 for Estac Troyes at 1xBet, 3.94 for the draw at 1xBet and 1.90 for Lens at 1xBet.

Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 98.5%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.

Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.72 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.30 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.58 (1xBet) and no 2.26 (1xBet).

Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.

52%

Our prediction

Lens to win
StrongExpected goals 1.18 : 1.85-0.8% against the best price
Double chanceLens or draw
77% chance1.28
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
58% chance1.72
BTTSBoth teams to score
60% chance1.58
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
81% chance1.24fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
11% chance9.52fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Lens, full-time Lens
33% chance3.00fair

Estac Troyes vs Lens prediction

Estac Troyes vs Lens prediction, who wins and at what price

The Estac Troyes vs Lens prediction leans to Lens: 52% against 23% for Estac Troyes, with 25% left for the draw, in the Ligue 1 on Saturday, 17 October 2026.

The goal expectancy is 3.03 in total, split 1.18 to Estac Troyes and 1.85 to Lens. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 58% and both teams to score 60%.

The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.

The pick for Estac Troyes vs Lens is lens to win, a 52% chance. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.90. That price implies 53%, 0 points over the model figure.

For a safer line, lens or draw covers 77% of outcomes at 1.28.

Estac Troyes average 0.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded across their last 5, Lens 1.0 and 1.6 across 5.

Estac Troyes vs Lens goals, both teams to score and half-time forecast

Under 2.5 goals is rated 43% and under 3.5 64%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 81% and over 2.5 at 58%.

Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 58%; 1xBet pay 1.72.

The chance of both teams scoring is 60%, built from Estac Troyes scoring in 69% of runs and Lens in 84%; clean sheets come at 16% for Estac Troyes and 31% for Lens.

Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 60%.

The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10.5%, followed by 1-2 (9.8%) and 0-1 (8.9%).

With the top scoreline at 10.5%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Estac Troyes vs Lens; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.

In the half-time / full-time market half-time Lens, full-time Lens leads at 33%. A goal before the break is rated 74%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.

Every market for Estac Troyes vs Lens

The grid built from 1.18 and 1.85 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.

Match result

Estac Troyes to win23%4.26
Draw25%3.94
Lens to win52%1.90
Estac Troyes, draw no bet31%fair 3.27
Lens, draw no bet69%fair 1.44

Double chance

Estac Troyes or draw48%2.05
Lens or draw77%1.28
Estac Troyes or Lens (no draw)75%1.31

Goals

Over 0.5 goals95%fair 1.05
Over 1.5 goals81%fair 1.24
Over 2.5 goals58%1.72
Over 3.5 goals36%fair 2.79
Over 4.5 goals19%fair 5.26
Under 1.5 goals20%fair 5.13
Under 2.5 goals43%2.30
Under 3.5 goals64%fair 1.56

BTTS

Both teams to score60%1.58
Not both teams to score40%2.26

Halves

First-half goal74%fair 1.34
Over 1.5 first-half goals40%fair 2.53
Second-half goal81%fair 1.23

Team goals

Estac Troyes to score69%fair 1.44
Lens to score84%fair 1.19
Estac Troyes clean sheet16%fair 6.37
Lens clean sheet31%fair 3.26
Estac Troyes to win to nil15%fair 6.90
Lens to win to nil28%fair 3.53

Odd or even

Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00

Most likely scores

1-110.5%
1-29.8%
0-18.9%
0-28.3%
2-16.2%
1-36%

Half-time / full-time

Lens / Lens33.3%
Draw / Lens16.6%
Estac Troyes / Estac Troyes13.7%
Draw / Draw12.8%
Draw / Estac Troyes8.7%

Questions about Estac Troyes vs Lens

Estac Troyes or Lens: which side does the model back?

The model gives Lens the best chance at 52%, with the draw at 25%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.

Estac Troyes vs Lens correct score: what does the model say?

1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 10.5%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 58% backs the same picture with less variance.

Is BTTS likely in Estac Troyes vs Lens?

The BTTS yes line is rated 60%. Estac Troyes find the net in 69% of simulated matches and Lens in 84%.

What time does Estac Troyes vs Lens kick off?

Kick-off is 18:45 UTC on Saturday, 17 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.

Our pick, Estac Troyes v LensLens to win, 52%
1.90Bet