Sturm Graz vs Celje prediction

Sturm Graz vs Celje prediction and best bet

Sturm Graz vs Celje prediction for the Europa League on Thursday, 5 November 2026: the model makes Sturm Graz the clear favourite at 63%, with the draw at 20% and Celje at 17%.

Expected goals are 2.15 for Sturm Graz and 1.03 for Celje, a total of 3.18, which puts over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams to score at 58%.

One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.

Sturm Graz to win is the main selection, rated 63%. The best price in our comparison is 1.58 at Melbet, which implies 63%, so the model sits 1 points below the market.

Sturm Graz or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 83% chance, priced 1.17.

The draw sits at only 20%, so the 12 double chance and draw no bet keep more of the price than usual.

Over the last 5 matches Sturm Graz stand at 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats; Celje show 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in 5.

Sturm Graz vs Celje over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score

On the goal lines Sturm Graz vs Celje reads 83% for over 1.5, 61% for over 2.5 and 39% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 39%.

Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 61%; 1xBet pay 1.61.

BTTS yes stands at 58%. Sturm Graz score in 88% of simulations against a 12% clean sheet for Celje; Celje score in 64% while Sturm Graz shut them out 36% of the time.

Correct score: 2-1 leads at 9.9%, then 2-0 at 9.6% and 1-1 at 9.2%.

A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.

Half-time / full-time: half-time Sturm Graz, full-time Sturm Graz is the top combination at 41%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 76%.