Europa League
Matchday 4 Thursday, 5 November 2026
Kick-off
Real SociedadHomeDWWWL
Thu 5 Nov
LyonAwayWWLLW532324
Real Sociedad winDrawLyon win
Europa League
Matchday 4 Thursday, 5 November 2026
Kick-off
Real SociedadHomeDWWWLLyonAwayWWLLW- Kick-off Thu 5 Nov
- Expected goals
- 3.23 1.95 : 1.28
- Favourite
- 53% Real Sociedad
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 63% model chance
- Prices compared
- 6 in the odds table
Real Sociedad vs Lyon betting odds by bookmaker
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.91 | 3.96 | 3.94 | 1.56 | 2.38 | 1.51 | 2.42 | Bet |
 22Bet | 1.87 | 3.86 | 3.84 | 1.56 | 2.38 | 1.51 | 2.42 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 1.83 | 3.90 | 3.85 | 1.54 | 2.40 | 1.49 | 2.38 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 1.91 | 3.96 | 3.94 | 1.56 | 2.38 | 1.51 | 2.42 | Bet |
 Melbet | 1.91 | 3.96 | 3.94 | 1.56 | 2.38 | 1.51 | 2.42 | Bet |
 Stake | 1.81 | 3.90 | 3.85 | 1.52 | 2.37 | 1.52 | 2.32 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Real Sociedad to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the Real Sociedad vs Lyon prediction: Real Sociedad 1.91 (1xBet), draw 3.96 (1xBet), Lyon 3.94 (1xBet).
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 97.1%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.56 (22Bet) and under 2.5 2.40 (BC.Game); both teams to score yes pays 1.52 (Stake) and no 2.42 (22Bet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
53%
Our prediction
Real Sociedad to win
Double chanceReal Sociedad or Lyon (no draw)
77% chance1.29
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
62% chance1.56
BTTSBoth teams to score
63% chance1.52
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
83% chance1.20fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
10% chance10.10fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Real Sociedad, full-time Real Sociedad
34% chance2.99fair
Real Sociedad vs Lyon prediction
Our Real Sociedad vs Lyon prediction and pick
Real Sociedad are a narrow favourite in the Real Sociedad vs Lyon prediction, rated 53% to win this Europa League match on Thursday, 5 November 2026. Lyon sit at 24% and the draw at 23%.
The goal expectancy is 3.23 in total, split 1.95 to Real Sociedad and 1.28 to Lyon. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 62% and both teams to score 63%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
Our main pick is real Sociedad to win at 53%. At 1.91 with 1xBet the market prices it at 52%, against 53% from the model.
Real Sociedad or Lyon (no draw) is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 77% chance, priced 1.29.
Over the last 5 matches Real Sociedad stand at 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats; Lyon show 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in 5.
Real Sociedad vs Lyon over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score
On the goal lines Real Sociedad vs Lyon reads 83% for over 1.5, 62% for over 2.5 and 40% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 38%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 62%, best priced 1.56 at 22Bet.
BTTS yes stands at 63%. Real Sociedad score in 86% of simulations against a 14% clean sheet for Lyon; Lyon score in 72% while Real Sociedad shut them out 28% of the time.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 63%.
Correct score: 1-1 leads at 9.9%, then 2-1 at 9.6% and 1-0 at 7.7%.
Even the leading scoreline holds only 9.9% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Real Sociedad, full-time Real Sociedad leads at 34%. A goal before the break is rated 77%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market for Real Sociedad vs Lyon
The grid built from 1.95 and 1.28 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Real Sociedad to win53%1.91
Draw23%3.96
Lyon to win24%3.94
Real Sociedad, draw no bet69%fair 1.46
Lyon, draw no bet31%fair 3.18
Double chance
Real Sociedad or draw76%1.29
Lyon or draw47%1.97
Real Sociedad or Lyon (no draw)77%1.29
Goals
Over 0.5 goals96%fair 1.04
Over 1.5 goals83%fair 1.20
Over 2.5 goals62%1.56
Over 3.5 goals40%fair 2.48
Over 4.5 goals23%fair 4.44
Under 1.5 goals17%fair 5.99
Under 2.5 goals38%2.40
Under 3.5 goals60%fair 1.68
BTTS
Both teams to score63%1.52
Not both teams to score37%2.42
Halves
First-half goal77%fair 1.31
Over 1.5 first-half goals43%fair 2.35
Second-half goal83%fair 1.20
Team goals
Real Sociedad to score86%fair 1.17
Lyon to score72%fair 1.39
Real Sociedad clean sheet28%fair 3.60
Lyon clean sheet14%fair 7.04
Real Sociedad to win to nil26%fair 3.91
Lyon to win to nil13%fair 7.63
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-19.9%
2-19.6%
1-07.7%
2-07.5%
1-26.3%
3-16.3%
Half-time / full-time
Real Sociedad / Real Sociedad33.5%
Draw / Real Sociedad16.1%
Lyon / Lyon14.3%
Draw / Draw11.9%
Draw / Lyon8.7%
Questions about Real Sociedad vs Lyon
Who is favourite in Real Sociedad vs Lyon?
The model gives Real Sociedad the best chance at 53%, with the draw at 23%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
What scoreline is most likely in Real Sociedad vs Lyon?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 9.9%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 62%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Lyon?
The BTTS yes line is rated 63%. Real Sociedad find the net in 86% of simulated matches and Lyon in 72%.
When is Real Sociedad vs Lyon and where is the result shown?
Real Sociedad vs Lyon starts at 17:45 UTC on Thursday, 5 November 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.