1. SNL
MariborHomeDWDLL
0:0Half-time 0:0
CeljeAwayDDWDW452530
Maribor winDrawCelje win
MariborHomeDWDLLCeljeAwayDDWDW- Kick-off Sun 18 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.02 1.67 : 1.35
- Favourite
- 45% Maribor
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 61% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Maribor vs Celje odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.11 | 3.48 | 2.90 | 1.62 | 2.11 | 1.53 | 2.32 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Maribor to win partner prices
The top 1X2 prices for Maribor vs Celje are 2.11 for Maribor at 1xBet, 3.48 for the draw at 1xBet and 2.90 for Celje at 1xBet.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 90.4%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.62 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.11 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.53 (1xBet) and no 2.32 (1xBet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
75%
Our prediction
Maribor or Celje (no draw)
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
58% chance1.62
BTTSBoth teams to score
61% chance1.53
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
80% chance1.24fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
11% chance9.09fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Maribor, full-time Maribor
28% chance3.64fair
First halfFirst-half goal
74% chance1.35fair
Maribor vs Celje prediction
Our Maribor vs Celje prediction and pick
Maribor vs Celje prediction for the 1. SNL on Sunday, 18 October 2026: the model makes Maribor marginally ahead at 45%, with the draw at 25% and Celje at 31%.
Expected goals are 1.67 for Maribor and 1.35 for Celje, a total of 3.02, which puts over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 61%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Maribor or Celje (no draw) is the main selection, rated 75%. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.22. That price implies 82%, 7 points over the model figure.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Maribor vs Celje.
Maribor average 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded across their last 5, Celje 1.8 and 0.6 across 5.
How many goals in Maribor vs Celje? Lines, BTTS and scorelines
On the goal lines Maribor vs Celje reads 80% for over 1.5, 58% for over 2.5 and 36% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 42%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 58%, best priced 1.62 at 1xBet.
Both teams to score is 61%: Maribor find the net in 81% of simulated matches and Celje in 74%. Maribor keep a clean sheet 26% of the time and Celje 19%.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 61%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Maribor vs Celje: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9.2%) and 1-0 (8.1%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 11% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Maribor, full-time Maribor leads at 28%. A goal before the break is rated 74%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
All markets, Maribor vs Celje
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Maribor vs Celje, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Maribor to win45%2.11
Draw25%3.48
Celje to win31%2.90
Maribor, draw no bet59%fair 1.69
Celje, draw no bet41%fair 2.45
Double chance
Maribor or draw69%1.31
Celje or draw55%1.58
Maribor or Celje (no draw)75%1.22
Goals
Over 0.5 goals95%fair 1.05
Over 1.5 goals80%fair 1.24
Over 2.5 goals58%1.62
Over 3.5 goals36%fair 2.80
Over 4.5 goals19%fair 5.32
Under 1.5 goals20%fair 5.10
Under 2.5 goals42%2.11
Under 3.5 goals64%fair 1.56
BTTS
Both teams to score61%1.53
Not both teams to score39%2.32
Halves
First-half goal74%fair 1.35
Over 1.5 first-half goals39%fair 2.54
Second-half goal81%fair 1.23
Team goals
Maribor to score81%fair 1.23
Celje to score74%fair 1.35
Maribor clean sheet26%fair 3.86
Celje clean sheet19%fair 5.32
Maribor to win to nil24%fair 4.18
Celje to win to nil17%fair 5.78
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-111%
2-19.2%
1-08.1%
1-27.4%
2-06.8%
0-16.6%
Half-time / full-time
Maribor / Maribor27.5%
Celje / Celje18.1%
Draw / Maribor14.7%
Draw / Draw13.3%
Draw / Celje10.8%
Questions about Maribor vs Celje
Maribor or Celje: which side does the model back?
The model gives Maribor the best chance at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Under 50% the favourite fails to win more often than it wins, which is why the double chance is the safer line here.
What scoreline is most likely in Maribor vs Celje?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 11%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 58% backs the same picture with less variance.
Will both teams score in Maribor vs Celje?
The BTTS yes line is rated 61%. Maribor find the net in 81% of simulated matches and Celje in 74%.
When do Maribor play Celje?
Maribor vs Celje starts at 16:00 UTC on Sunday, 18 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.