Ekstraklasa
Lech PoznanHomeWDWLW
6:1Half-time 4:0
Korona KielceAwayWLLWL622117
Lech Poznan winDrawKorona Kielce win
Lech PoznanHomeWDWLWKorona KielceAwayWLLWL- Kick-off Sun 18 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.20 2.14 : 1.06
- Favourite
- 62% Lech Poznan
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 59% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce betting odds by bookmaker
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.59 | 4.20 | 4.72 | 1.50 | 2.28 | 1.58 | 2.23 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Lech Poznan to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce prediction: Lech Poznan 1.59 (1xBet), draw 4.20 (1xBet), Korona Kielce 4.72 (1xBet).
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 92.7%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.50 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.28 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.58 (1xBet) and no 2.23 (1xBet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
62%
Our prediction
Lech Poznan to win
Double chanceLech Poznan or draw
83% chance1.15
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
61% chance1.50
BTTSBoth teams to score
59% chance1.58
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
83% chance1.21fair
ScorelineCorrect score 2-1
10% chance10.10fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Lech Poznan, full-time Lech Poznan
41% chance2.47fair
Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce prediction
Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce prediction, who wins and at what price
Lech Poznan host Korona Kielce on Sunday, 18 October 2026 in the Ekstraklasa, and the model has Lech Poznan at 62%, the draw at 21% and Korona Kielce at 17%: that is the Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce prediction in one line.
The goal expectancy is 3.20 in total, split 2.14 to Lech Poznan and 1.06 to Korona Kielce. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 61% and both teams to score 59%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
The pick for Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce is lech Poznan to win, a 62% chance. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.59. That price implies 63%, 1 points over the model figure.
Lech Poznan or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 83% chance, priced 1.15.
With the draw down at 21%, draw no bet costs little insurance and the 12 line keeps most of the win price.
Form check: Lech Poznan have won 3 of their last 5 with 12 scored and 5 conceded, Korona Kielce 2 of 5 scoring 6 and conceding 12.
Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score
On the goal lines Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce reads 83% for over 1.5, 61% for over 2.5 and 40% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 39%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 61%, best priced 1.50 at 1xBet.
The chance of both teams scoring is 59%, built from Lech Poznan scoring in 88% of runs and Korona Kielce in 65%; clean sheets come at 35% for Lech Poznan and 12% for Korona Kielce.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 59%.
Correct score: 2-1 leads at 9.9%, then 2-0 at 9.3% and 1-1 at 9.2%.
Even the leading scoreline holds only 9.9% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Lech Poznan, full-time Lech Poznan is the top combination at 41%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 76%.
Every market for Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 62% / 21% / 17% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Lech Poznan to win62%1.59
Draw21%4.20
Korona Kielce to win17%4.72
Lech Poznan, draw no bet78%fair 1.28
Korona Kielce, draw no bet22%fair 4.61
Double chance
Lech Poznan or draw83%1.15
Korona Kielce or draw39%2.22
Lech Poznan or Korona Kielce (no draw)79%1.19
Goals
Over 0.5 goals96%fair 1.04
Over 1.5 goals83%fair 1.21
Over 2.5 goals61%1.50
Over 3.5 goals40%fair 2.52
Over 4.5 goals22%fair 4.57
Under 1.5 goals17%fair 5.85
Under 2.5 goals39%2.28
Under 3.5 goals60%fair 1.66
BTTS
Both teams to score59%1.58
Not both teams to score41%2.23
Halves
First-half goal76%fair 1.31
Over 1.5 first-half goals42%fair 2.37
Second-half goal83%fair 1.21
Team goals
Lech Poznan to score88%fair 1.13
Korona Kielce to score65%fair 1.53
Lech Poznan clean sheet35%fair 2.89
Korona Kielce clean sheet12%fair 8.47
Lech Poznan to win to nil32%fair 3.13
Korona Kielce to win to nil11%fair 9.26
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
2-19.9%
2-09.3%
1-19.2%
1-08.7%
3-17.1%
3-06.7%
Half-time / full-time
Lech Poznan / Lech Poznan40.5%
Draw / Lech Poznan18.1%
Draw / Draw11.2%
Korona Kielce / Korona Kielce9.9%
Draw / Korona Kielce6.6%
Questions about Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce
Who will win Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce?
The model gives Lech Poznan the best chance at 62%, with the draw at 21%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce correct score: what does the model say?
2-1 is the most likely scoreline at 9.9%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 61%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce?
The BTTS yes line is rated 59%. Lech Poznan find the net in 88% of simulated matches and Korona Kielce in 65%.
When is Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce and where is the result shown?
Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce starts at 15:30 UTC on Sunday, 18 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.