Poland Cup
Siarka TarnobrzegHomeW
1:0Half-time 0:0
Lech PoznanAwayWDWLW5887
Siarka Tarnobrzeg winDrawLech Poznan win
Siarka TarnobrzegHomeWLech PoznanAwayWDWLW- Kick-off Wed 28 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.56 0.56 : 3.00
- Favourite
- 87% Lech Poznan
- Over 2.5 goals
- 67% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 43% model chance
- Prices compared
- 5 in the odds table
Best odds for Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Lech Poznan
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 15.50 | 7.30 | 1.08 | 1.37 | 2.66 | 2.13 | 1.61 | Bet |
 22Bet | 18.70 | 6.59 | 1.16 | 1.45 | 2.63 | 2.28 | 1.59 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 16.00 | 7.60 | 1.10 | 1.41 | 2.74 | 2.10 | 1.60 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 18.10 | 6.66 | 1.16 | 1.36 | 2.69 | 2.38 | 1.54 | Bet |
 Melbet | 18.10 | 6.66 | 1.16 | 1.45 | 2.63 | 2.38 | 1.54 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Lech Poznan to win partner prices
22Bet pay the best Siarka Tarnobrzeg price at 18.70, BC.Game lead the draw at 7.60 and Melbet have Lech Poznan longest at 1.16.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 95.2%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.45 (22Bet) and under 2.5 2.74 (BC.Game); both teams to score yes pays 2.38 (Melbet) and no 1.61 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
87%
Our prediction
Lech Poznan to win
Double chanceLech Poznan or draw
95% chance-
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
67% chance1.45
BTTSNot both teams to score
58% chance1.61
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
87% chance1.15fair
ScorelineCorrect score 0-2
13% chance7.81fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Lech Poznan, full-time Lech Poznan
63% chance1.58fair
Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Lech Poznan prediction
Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Lech Poznan prediction, who wins and at what price
Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Lech Poznan prediction for the Poland Cup on Wednesday, 28 October 2026: the model makes Lech Poznan a strong favourite at 87%, with the draw at 8% and Siarka Tarnobrzeg at 5%.
Siarka Tarnobrzeg are expected to score 0.56 and Lech Poznan 3.00, so the total line is 3.56 goals; over 2.5 lands at 67% and BTTS at 43%.
One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.
The pick for Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Lech Poznan is lech Poznan to win, a 87% chance. At 1.16 with Melbet the market prices it at 87%, against 87% from the model.
For a safer line, lech Poznan or draw covers 95% of outcomes at -.
The draw sits at only 8%, so the 12 double chance and draw no bet keep more of the price than usual.
Goals forecast for Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Lech Poznan with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
On the goal lines Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Lech Poznan reads 87% for over 1.5, 67% for over 2.5 and 48% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 34%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 67%; 22Bet pay 1.45.
The chance of both teams scoring is 43%, built from Siarka Tarnobrzeg scoring in 43% of runs and Lech Poznan in 95%; clean sheets come at 5% for Siarka Tarnobrzeg and 57% for Lech Poznan.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Lech Poznan: 0-2 (12.8%), 0-3 (12.8%) and 0-4 (9.6%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 12.8% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Lech Poznan, full-time Lech Poznan is the top combination at 63%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 80%.
Every market rated for Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Lech Poznan
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 5% / 8% / 87% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Siarka Tarnobrzeg to win5%18.70
Draw8%7.60
Lech Poznan to win87%1.16
Siarka Tarnobrzeg, draw no bet5%fair 18.87
Lech Poznan, draw no bet95%fair 1.06
Double chance
Siarka Tarnobrzeg or draw13%5.15
Lech Poznan or draw95%-
Siarka Tarnobrzeg or Lech Poznan (no draw)92%1.09
Goals
Over 0.5 goals97%fair 1.03
Over 1.5 goals87%fair 1.15
Over 2.5 goals67%1.45
Over 3.5 goals48%fair 2.11
Over 4.5 goals29%fair 3.51
Under 1.5 goals13%fair 7.63
Under 2.5 goals34%2.74
Under 3.5 goals53%fair 1.90
BTTS
Both teams to score43%2.38
Not both teams to score58%1.61
Halves
First-half goal80%fair 1.25
Over 1.5 first-half goals48%fair 2.10
Second-half goal86%fair 1.16
Team goals
Siarka Tarnobrzeg to score43%fair 2.33
Lech Poznan to score95%fair 1.05
Siarka Tarnobrzeg clean sheet5%fair 20.00
Lech Poznan clean sheet57%fair 1.75
Siarka Tarnobrzeg to win to nil5%fair 22.22
Lech Poznan to win to nil53%fair 1.90
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
0-212.8%
0-312.8%
0-49.6%
0-18.5%
1-27.2%
1-37.2%
Half-time / full-time
Lech Poznan / Lech Poznan63.2%
Draw / Lech Poznan19.6%
Draw / Draw6.1%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg / Lech Poznan2.6%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg / Siarka Tarnobrzeg2.2%
Questions about Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Lech Poznan
Who will win Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Lech Poznan?
The model gives Lech Poznan the best chance at 87%, with the draw at 8%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
What is the correct score prediction for Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Lech Poznan?
0-2 is the most likely scoreline at 12.8%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 67% backs the same picture with less variance.
Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Lech Poznan both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 43%. Siarka Tarnobrzeg find the net in 43% of simulated matches and Lech Poznan in 95%.
What time does Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Kick-off is 11:30 UTC on Wednesday, 28 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.