Série A
Round 31 Sunday, 18 October 2026
FT
Sao PauloHomeLWWDL
1:0Half-time 0:0
Vasco DA GamaAwayLLWLL442828
Sao Paulo winDrawVasco DA Gama win
Série A
Round 31 Sunday, 18 October 2026
FT
Sao PauloHomeLWWDLVasco DA GamaAwayLLWLL- Kick-off Sun 18 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.41 1.37 : 1.04
- Favourite
- 44% Sao Paulo
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 50% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.18 | 3.42 | 3.44 | 2.19 | 1.71 | 1.85 | 1.85 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Sao Paulo to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama prediction: Sao Paulo 2.18 (1xBet), draw 3.42 (1xBet), Vasco DA Gama 3.44 (1xBet).
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 96%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 2.19 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.71 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.85 (1xBet) and no 1.85 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
72%
Our prediction
Sao Paulo or draw
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
57% chance1.71
BTTSBoth teams to score
50% chance1.85
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
69% chance1.44fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
13% chance7.81fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Sao Paulo, full-time Sao Paulo
26% chance3.80fair
First halfFirst-half goal
66% chance1.51fair
Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama prediction
Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama prediction and best bet
The Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama prediction leans to Sao Paulo: 44% against 28% for Vasco DA Gama, with 28% left for the draw, in the Série A on Sunday, 18 October 2026.
Expected goals are 1.37 for Sao Paulo and 1.04 for Vasco DA Gama, a total of 2.41, which puts over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams to score at 50%.
One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.
The pick for Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama is sao Paulo or draw, a 72% chance. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.33. That price implies 75%, 3 points over the model figure.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama.
Form check: Sao Paulo have won 2 of their last 5 with 6 scored and 7 conceded, Vasco DA Gama 1 of 5 scoring 5 and conceding 11.
A low-scoring Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama? Under 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
Under 2.5 goals is rated 57% and under 3.5 78%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 69% and over 2.5 at 43%.
Under 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 57%; 1xBet pay 1.71.
BTTS yes stands at 50%. Sao Paulo score in 75% of simulations against a 25% clean sheet for Vasco DA Gama; Vasco DA Gama score in 65% while Sao Paulo shut them out 35% of the time.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.8%, followed by 1-0 (12.3%) and 0-1 (9.3%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 12.8% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Sao Paulo, full-time Sao Paulo is the top combination at 26%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 66%.
All markets, Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Sao Paulo to win44%2.18
Draw28%3.42
Vasco DA Gama to win28%3.44
Sao Paulo, draw no bet61%fair 1.63
Vasco DA Gama, draw no bet39%fair 2.58
Double chance
Sao Paulo or draw72%1.33
Vasco DA Gama or draw56%1.71
Sao Paulo or Vasco DA Gama (no draw)72%1.33
Goals
Over 0.5 goals91%fair 1.10
Over 1.5 goals69%fair 1.44
Over 2.5 goals43%2.19
Over 3.5 goals22%fair 4.48
Over 4.5 goals10%fair 10.31
Under 1.5 goals31%fair 3.27
Under 2.5 goals57%1.71
Under 3.5 goals78%fair 1.29
BTTS
Both teams to score50%1.85
Not both teams to score50%1.85
Halves
First-half goal66%fair 1.51
Over 1.5 first-half goals30%fair 3.39
Second-half goal73%fair 1.36
Team goals
Sao Paulo to score75%fair 1.34
Vasco DA Gama to score65%fair 1.55
Sao Paulo clean sheet35%fair 2.83
Vasco DA Gama clean sheet25%fair 3.94
Sao Paulo to win to nil33%fair 3.08
Vasco DA Gama to win to nil23%fair 4.27
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.02
Even number of goals50%fair 1.98
Most likely scores
1-112.8%
1-012.3%
0-19.3%
0-09%
2-18.8%
2-08.4%
Half-time / full-time
Sao Paulo / Sao Paulo26.3%
Draw / Draw17.4%
Vasco DA Gama / Vasco DA Gama16%
Draw / Sao Paulo15.9%
Draw / Vasco DA Gama11%
Questions about Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama?
The model gives Sao Paulo the best chance at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Under 50% the favourite fails to win more often than it wins, which is why the double chance is the safer line here.
What is the correct score prediction for Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12.8%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 43% backs the same picture with less variance.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama?
The BTTS yes line is rated 50%. Sao Paulo find the net in 75% of simulated matches and Vasco DA Gama in 65%.
When is Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama and where is the result shown?
Kick-off is 00:00 UTC on Sunday, 18 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.