Bahia vs Flamengo prediction

Bahia vs Flamengo prediction and best bet

Flamengo are marginally ahead in the Bahia vs Flamengo prediction, rated 47% to win this Série A match on Sunday, 18 October 2026. Bahia sit at 28% and the draw at 25%.

Expected goals are 1.29 for Bahia and 1.73 for Flamengo, a total of 3.02, which puts over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 62%.

The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.

Our main pick is bahia or Flamengo (no draw) at 75%. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.28. That price implies 78%, 3 points over the model figure.

The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.

Over the last 5 matches Bahia stand at 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats; Flamengo show 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in 5.

Bahia vs Flamengo goals, both teams to score and half-time forecast

Under 2.5 goals is rated 42% and under 3.5 64%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 80% and over 2.5 at 58%.

The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 58%, best priced 1.66 at 1xBet.

The chance of both teams scoring is 62%, built from Bahia scoring in 73% of runs and Flamengo in 82%; clean sheets come at 18% for Bahia and 28% for Flamengo.

Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 62%.

Three scorelines carry the most weight for Bahia vs Flamengo: 1-1 (10.9%), 1-2 (9.4%) and 0-1 (8.4%).

Even the leading scoreline holds only 10.9% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.

In the half-time / full-time market half-time Flamengo, full-time Flamengo leads at 29%. A goal before the break is rated 74%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.