Copa Sudamericana
Vasco DA GamaHomeLLWLL
1:3Half-time 0:2
Boca JuniorsAwayLWWWW353134
Vasco DA Gama winDrawBoca Juniors win
Vasco DA GamaHomeLLWLLBoca JuniorsAwayLWWWW- Kick-off Wed 21 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.16 1.09 : 1.07
- Favourite
- 35% Vasco DA Gama
- Over 2.5 goals
- 37% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 44% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Best odds for Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.79 | 3.10 | 2.94 | 2.46 | 1.43 | 2.06 | 1.68 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Vasco DA Gama to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best Vasco DA Gama price at 2.79, 1xBet lead the draw at 3.10 and 1xBet have Boca Juniors longest at 2.94.
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 97.9%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 2.46 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.43 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 2.06 (1xBet) and no 1.68 (1xBet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
69%
Our prediction
Vasco DA Gama or Boca Juniors (no draw)
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
63% chance1.43
BTTSNot both teams to score
56% chance1.68
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
64% chance1.57fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
14% chance7.41fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Vasco DA Gama, full-time Vasco DA Gama
20% chance4.93fair
First halfFirst-half goal
62% chance1.61fair
Vasco DA Gama v Boca Juniors head to head
1Vasco DA Gama wins
0Draws
0Boca Juniors wins
- 14 Oct 26Boca Juniors0:1Vasco DA Gama
1 meeting since coverage began, 1 goals in total: Vasco DA Gama scored 1, Boca Juniors scored 0.
Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors prediction
Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors prediction, who wins and at what price
Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors prediction for the Copa Sudamericana on Wednesday, 21 October 2026: the model calls it close, Vasco DA Gama 35%, draw 31%, Boca Juniors 34%. With no clear favourite the single-result markets carry real risk, and the goal lines below are where the steadier edges sit.
Vasco DA Gama are expected to score 1.09 and Boca Juniors 1.07, so the total line is 2.16 goals; over 2.5 lands at 37% and BTTS at 44%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
Our main pick is vasco DA Gama or Boca Juniors (no draw) at 69%. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.43. That price implies 70%, 1 points over the model figure.
A 31% draw chance is high for this level and argues against backing either side to win outright.
Form check: Vasco DA Gama have won 1 of their last 5 with 5 scored and 11 conceded, Boca Juniors 4 of 5 scoring 7 and conceding 3.
A low-scoring Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors? Under 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 64%, over 2.5 at 37%, over 3.5 at 17%; under 2.5 is 63% and under 3.5 is 83%.
Under 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 63%; 1xBet pay 1.43.
The chance of both teams scoring is 44%, built from Vasco DA Gama scoring in 66% of runs and Boca Juniors in 66%; clean sheets come at 34% for Vasco DA Gama and 34% for Boca Juniors.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors: 1-1 (13.5%), 1-0 (12.6%) and 0-1 (12.3%).
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Vasco DA Gama, full-time Vasco DA Gama is the top combination at 20%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 62%.
All markets, Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 35% / 31% / 34% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Vasco DA Gama to win35%2.79
Draw31%3.10
Boca Juniors to win34%2.94
Vasco DA Gama, draw no bet51%fair 1.96
Boca Juniors, draw no bet49%fair 2.04
Double chance
Vasco DA Gama or draw66%1.47
Boca Juniors or draw65%1.51
Vasco DA Gama or Boca Juniors (no draw)69%1.43
Goals
Over 0.5 goals89%fair 1.13
Over 1.5 goals64%fair 1.57
Over 2.5 goals37%2.46
Over 3.5 goals17%fair 5.78
Over 4.5 goals7%fair 14.71
Under 1.5 goals36%fair 2.75
Under 2.5 goals63%1.43
Under 3.5 goals83%fair 1.21
BTTS
Both teams to score44%2.06
Not both teams to score56%1.68
Halves
First-half goal62%fair 1.61
Over 1.5 first-half goals25%fair 3.94
Second-half goal70%fair 1.44
Team goals
Vasco DA Gama to score66%fair 1.51
Boca Juniors to score66%fair 1.52
Vasco DA Gama clean sheet34%fair 2.92
Boca Juniors clean sheet34%fair 2.98
Vasco DA Gama to win to nil32%fair 3.16
Boca Juniors to win to nil31%fair 3.24
Odd or even
Odd number of goals49%fair 2.03
Even number of goals51%fair 1.97
Most likely scores
1-113.5%
1-012.6%
0-112.3%
0-011.5%
2-17.3%
1-27.2%
Half-time / full-time
Vasco DA Gama / Vasco DA Gama20.3%
Draw / Draw20%
Boca Juniors / Boca Juniors19.7%
Draw / Vasco DA Gama13.8%
Draw / Boca Juniors13.5%
Questions about Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors
Who will win Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors?
The model gives Vasco DA Gama the best chance at 35%, with the draw at 31%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
What scoreline is most likely in Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 13.5%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 37%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Is BTTS likely in Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors?
The BTTS yes line is rated 44%. Vasco DA Gama find the net in 66% of simulated matches and Boca Juniors in 66%.
When do Vasco DA Gama play Boca Juniors?
Kick-off is 00:30 UTC on Wednesday, 21 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.