Gremio vs Cruzeiro prediction

Our Gremio vs Cruzeiro prediction and pick

Gremio host Cruzeiro on Sunday, 18 October 2026 in the Série A, and the model has Cruzeiro at 45%, the draw at 26% and Gremio at 29%: that is the Gremio vs Cruzeiro prediction in one line.

Expected goals are 1.29 for Gremio and 1.63 for Cruzeiro, a total of 2.92, which puts over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 60%.

One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.

The pick for Gremio vs Cruzeiro is gremio or Cruzeiro (no draw), a 74% chance. The best price in our comparison is 1.30 at 1xBet, which implies 77%, so the model sits 3 points below the market.

The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.

Gremio average 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded across their last 5, Cruzeiro 2.0 and 1.2 across 5.

Goals, BTTS and correct score for Gremio vs Cruzeiro

On the goal lines Gremio vs Cruzeiro reads 79% for over 1.5, 55% for over 2.5 and 34% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 45%.

The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 55%, best priced 1.76 at 1xBet.

The chance of both teams scoring is 60%, built from Gremio scoring in 73% of runs and Cruzeiro in 80%; clean sheets come at 20% for Gremio and 28% for Cruzeiro.

Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 60%.

Correct score: 1-1 leads at 11.3%, then 1-2 at 9.2% and 0-1 at 8.8%.

A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.

In the half-time / full-time market half-time Cruzeiro, full-time Cruzeiro leads at 28%. A goal before the break is rated 73%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.