Série A
Round 33 Thursday, 29 October 2026
FT
BahiaHomeLWLDW
3:2Half-time 2:2
Sao PauloAwayLWWDL512524
Bahia winDrawSao Paulo win
Série A
Round 33 Thursday, 29 October 2026
FT
BahiaHomeLWLDWSao PauloAwayLWWDL- Kick-off Thu 29 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.83 1.71 : 1.12
- Favourite
- 51% Bahia
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 57% model chance
- Prices compared
- 6 in the odds table
Best odds for Bahia vs Sao Paulo
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.91 | 3.80 | 3.92 | 1.72 | 2.17 | 1.60 | 2.19 | Bet |
 22Bet | 1.94 | 3.58 | 3.88 | 1.84 | 1.97 | 1.74 | 2.10 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 1.84 | 3.55 | 4.00 | 1.74 | 1.99 | 1.68 | 2.08 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 1.95 | 3.58 | 3.80 | 1.84 | 1.97 | 1.74 | 2.10 | Bet |
 Melbet | 1.95 | 3.58 | 3.80 | 1.84 | 1.97 | 1.74 | 2.10 | Bet |
 Stake | 1.92 | 3.65 | 3.80 | 1.73 | 2.03 | 1.66 | 2.09 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Bahia to win partner prices
Melbet pay the best Bahia price at 1.95, 1xBet lead the draw at 3.80 and BC.Game have Sao Paulo longest at 4.00.
The best-price payout across the three results is 97.5%, several points better than any single book offers here.
For the goals, over 2.5 pays 1.84 (Betwinner) and under 2.5 2.17 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.74 (Melbet) and no 2.19 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
51%
Our prediction
Bahia to win
Double chanceBahia or draw
76% chance1.27
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
53% chance1.84
BTTSBoth teams to score
57% chance1.74
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
77% chance1.29fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
11% chance8.85fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Bahia, full-time Bahia
32% chance3.15fair
Bahia vs Sao Paulo prediction
Bahia vs Sao Paulo prediction and best bet
Bahia host Sao Paulo on Thursday, 29 October 2026 in the Série A, and the model has Bahia at 51%, the draw at 25% and Sao Paulo at 24%: that is the Bahia vs Sao Paulo prediction in one line.
Expected goals are 1.71 for Bahia and 1.12 for Sao Paulo, a total of 2.83, which puts over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 57%.
One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.
Our main pick is bahia to win at 51%. At 1.95 with Melbet the market prices it at 51%, against 51% from the model.
Bahia or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 76% chance, priced 1.27.
Form check: Bahia have won 2 of their last 5 with 5 scored and 7 conceded, Sao Paulo 2 of 5 scoring 6 and conceding 7.
How many goals in Bahia vs Sao Paulo? Lines, BTTS and scorelines
On the goal lines Bahia vs Sao Paulo reads 77% for over 1.5, 53% for over 2.5 and 32% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 47%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 53%, best priced 1.84 at Betwinner.
BTTS yes stands at 57%. Bahia score in 82% of simulations against a 18% clean sheet for Sao Paulo; Sao Paulo score in 67% while Bahia shut them out 33% of the time.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Bahia vs Sao Paulo: 1-1 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.1%) and 2-1 (9.7%).
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Bahia, full-time Bahia is the top combination at 32%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 72%.
Every market rated for Bahia vs Sao Paulo
The grid built from 1.71 and 1.12 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Bahia to win51%1.95
Draw25%3.80
Sao Paulo to win24%4.00
Bahia, draw no bet68%fair 1.47
Sao Paulo, draw no bet32%fair 3.11
Double chance
Bahia or draw76%1.27
Sao Paulo or draw49%1.93
Bahia or Sao Paulo (no draw)75%1.29
Goals
Over 0.5 goals94%fair 1.06
Over 1.5 goals77%fair 1.29
Over 2.5 goals53%1.84
Over 3.5 goals32%fair 3.17
Over 4.5 goals16%fair 6.37
Under 1.5 goals23%fair 4.42
Under 2.5 goals47%2.17
Under 3.5 goals69%fair 1.46
BTTS
Both teams to score57%1.74
Not both teams to score43%2.19
Halves
First-half goal72%fair 1.39
Over 1.5 first-half goals36%fair 2.75
Second-half goal79%fair 1.27
Team goals
Bahia to score82%fair 1.22
Sao Paulo to score67%fair 1.48
Bahia clean sheet33%fair 3.07
Sao Paulo clean sheet18%fair 5.52
Bahia to win to nil30%fair 3.33
Sao Paulo to win to nil17%fair 6.02
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-111.3%
1-010.1%
2-19.7%
2-08.6%
0-16.6%
1-26.3%
Half-time / full-time
Bahia / Bahia31.7%
Draw / Bahia16.7%
Draw / Draw14.1%
Sao Paulo / Sao Paulo14%
Draw / Sao Paulo9.2%
Questions about Bahia vs Sao Paulo
Bahia or Sao Paulo: which side does the model back?
The model gives Bahia the best chance at 51%, with the draw at 25%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
What is the correct score prediction for Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 11.3%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 53%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Bahia vs Sao Paulo both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 57%. Bahia find the net in 82% of simulated matches and Sao Paulo in 67%.
What time does Bahia vs Sao Paulo kick off?
Bahia vs Sao Paulo starts at 00:30 UTC on Thursday, 29 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.