Série A
Round 33 Thursday, 29 October 2026
FT
Atletico-MGHomeWLLLL
0:1Half-time 0:1
CruzeiroAwayWLWWW382636
Atletico-MG winDrawCruzeiro win
Série A
Round 33 Thursday, 29 October 2026
FT
Atletico-MGHomeWLLLLCruzeiroAwayWLWWW- Kick-off Thu 29 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.01 1.52 : 1.49
- Favourite
- 38% Atletico-MG
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 61% model chance
- Prices compared
- 6 in the odds table
Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.74 | 3.54 | 2.53 | 1.76 | 2.12 | 1.56 | 2.28 | Bet |
 22Bet | 2.94 | 3.42 | 2.38 | 1.76 | 2.07 | 1.56 | 2.43 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 2.78 | 3.50 | 2.32 | 1.67 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.28 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 2.94 | 3.42 | 2.38 | 1.76 | 2.07 | 1.56 | 2.43 | Bet |
 Melbet | 2.94 | 3.42 | 2.38 | 1.76 | 2.07 | 1.56 | 2.43 | Bet |
 Stake | 2.80 | 3.60 | 2.35 | 1.62 | 2.20 | 1.54 | 2.32 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Atletico-MG to win partner prices
Melbet pay the best Atletico-MG price at 2.94, Stake lead the draw at 3.60 and 1xBet have Cruzeiro longest at 2.53.
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 98.7%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.76 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.20 (Stake); both teams to score yes pays 1.57 (BC.Game) and no 2.43 (Melbet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
74%
Our prediction
Atletico-MG or Cruzeiro (no draw)
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
58% chance1.76
BTTSBoth teams to score
61% chance1.57
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
80% chance1.25fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
11% chance8.93fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Atletico-MG, full-time Atletico-MG
23% chance4.35fair
First halfFirst-half goal
74% chance1.35fair
Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro prediction
Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro prediction and best bet
Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro prediction for the Série A on Thursday, 29 October 2026: the model calls it close, Atletico-MG 38%, draw 26%, Cruzeiro 36%. With no clear favourite the single-result markets carry real risk, and the goal lines below are where the steadier edges sit.
Expected goals are 1.52 for Atletico-MG and 1.49 for Cruzeiro, a total of 3.01, which puts over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 61%.
One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.
The pick for Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro is atletico-MG or Cruzeiro (no draw), a 74% chance. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.32. That price implies 76%, 1 points over the model figure.
Atletico-MG average 0.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded across their last 5, Cruzeiro 2.0 and 1.2 across 5.
How many goals in Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro? Lines, BTTS and scorelines
Under 2.5 goals is rated 42% and under 3.5 65%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 80% and over 2.5 at 58%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 58%; 1xBet pay 1.76.
Both teams to score is 61%: Atletico-MG find the net in 78% of simulated matches and Cruzeiro in 78%. Atletico-MG keep a clean sheet 23% of the time and Cruzeiro 22%.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 61%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro: 1-1 (11.2%), 2-1 (8.5%) and 1-2 (8.3%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 11.2% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Atletico-MG, full-time Atletico-MG leads at 23%. A goal before the break is rated 74%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market for Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Atletico-MG to win38%2.94
Draw26%3.60
Cruzeiro to win36%2.53
Atletico-MG, draw no bet51%fair 1.96
Cruzeiro, draw no bet49%fair 2.04
Double chance
Atletico-MG or draw64%1.58
Cruzeiro or draw62%1.48
Atletico-MG or Cruzeiro (no draw)74%1.32
Goals
Over 0.5 goals95%fair 1.05
Over 1.5 goals80%fair 1.25
Over 2.5 goals58%1.76
Over 3.5 goals36%fair 2.82
Over 4.5 goals19%fair 5.38
Under 1.5 goals20%fair 5.05
Under 2.5 goals42%2.20
Under 3.5 goals65%fair 1.55
BTTS
Both teams to score61%1.57
Not both teams to score39%2.43
Halves
First-half goal74%fair 1.35
Over 1.5 first-half goals39%fair 2.55
Second-half goal81%fair 1.24
Team goals
Atletico-MG to score78%fair 1.28
Cruzeiro to score78%fair 1.29
Atletico-MG clean sheet23%fair 4.44
Cruzeiro clean sheet22%fair 4.57
Atletico-MG to win to nil21%fair 4.83
Cruzeiro to win to nil20%fair 4.98
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-111.2%
2-18.5%
1-28.3%
1-07.5%
0-17.3%
2-26.3%
Half-time / full-time
Atletico-MG / Atletico-MG23%
Cruzeiro / Cruzeiro22.1%
Draw / Draw13.5%
Draw / Atletico-MG13%
Draw / Cruzeiro12.6%
Questions about Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro
Who is favourite in Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro?
The model gives Atletico-MG the best chance at 38%, with the draw at 26%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
What scoreline is most likely in Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 11.2%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 58%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Will both teams score in Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro?
The BTTS yes line is rated 61%. Atletico-MG find the net in 78% of simulated matches and Cruzeiro in 78%.
When is Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro and where is the result shown?
Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro starts at 22:30 UTC on Thursday, 29 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.