Copa do Brasil
GremioHomeDLWWW
2:0Half-time 1:0
Atletico-MGAwayWLLLL383230
Gremio winDrawAtletico-MG win
GremioHomeDLWWWAtletico-MGAwayWLLLL- Kick-off Sun 1 Nov
- Expected goals
- 2.29 1.21 : 1.08
- Favourite
- 38% Gremio
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 48% model chance
- Prices compared
- 5 in the odds table
Gremio vs Atletico-MG odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.63 | 3.04 | 2.91 | 2.33 | 1.60 | 1.92 | 1.79 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 2.28 | 3.05 | 3.45 | 2.42 | 1.51 | 2.08 | 1.68 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 2.38 | 3.19 | 3.14 | 2.59 | 1.50 | 1.99 | 1.82 | Bet |
 Melbet | 2.38 | 3.19 | 3.14 | 2.59 | 1.50 | 1.99 | 1.82 | Bet |
 Stake | 2.30 | 3.05 | 3.35 | 2.41 | 1.52 | 2.06 | 1.68 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Gremio to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the Gremio vs Atletico-MG prediction: Gremio 2.63 (1xBet), draw 3.19 (Melbet), Atletico-MG 3.45 (BC.Game).
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 101.7%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 2.59 (Melbet) and under 2.5 1.60 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 2.08 (BC.Game) and no 1.82 (Melbet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
70%
Our prediction
Gremio or draw
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
60% chance1.60
BTTSNot both teams to score
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
67% chance1.50fairWon
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
13% chance7.58fairLost
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Gremio, full-time Gremio
23% chance4.42fairWon
First halfFirst-half goal
64% chance1.56fairWon
Gremio vs Atletico-MG odds movement
Gremio win2.63unchanged
Draw3.19-0.11
Atletico-MG win3.45unchanged
Over 2.5 goals2.59unchanged
Under 2.5 goals1.60-0.05
Best price in the comparison at each refresh since the match was first priced on 1 Nov, 23:57 UTC. A shortening price means money has come for that outcome.
Gremio vs Atletico-MG prediction
Gremio vs Atletico-MG prediction and best bet
Nothing separates the sides in the Gremio vs Atletico-MG prediction for Sunday, 1 November 2026: 38% home, 32% draw and 30% away in the Copa do Brasil. A match this tight rewards the double chance and the goal markets more than a straight pick.
Gremio are expected to score 1.21 and Atletico-MG 1.08, so the total line is 2.29 goals; over 2.5 lands at 40% and BTTS at 48%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Our main pick is gremio or draw at 70%. At 1.41 with 1xBet the market prices it at 71%, against 70% from the model.
A 32% draw chance is high for this level and argues against backing either side to win outright.
Gremio average 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded across their last 5, Atletico-MG 0.6 and 1.6 across 5.
Under 2.5, both teams to score and the scoreline in Gremio vs Atletico-MG
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 67%, over 2.5 at 40%, over 3.5 at 20%; under 2.5 is 60% and under 3.5 is 80%.
Under 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 60%; 1xBet pay 1.60.
Both teams to score is 48%: Gremio find the net in 70% of simulated matches and Atletico-MG in 66%. Gremio keep a clean sheet 34% of the time and Atletico-MG 30%.
Correct score: 1-1 leads at 13.2%, then 1-0 at 12.3% and 0-1 at 10.9%.
With the top scoreline at 13.2%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Gremio vs Atletico-MG; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Gremio, full-time Gremio is the top combination at 23%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 64%.
All markets, Gremio vs Atletico-MG
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Gremio vs Atletico-MG, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Gremio to win38%2.63
Draw32%3.19
Atletico-MG to win30%3.45
Gremio, draw no bet55%fair 1.81
Atletico-MG, draw no bet45%fair 2.24
Double chance
Gremio or draw70%1.41
Atletico-MG or draw62%1.62
Gremio or Atletico-MG (no draw)68%1.38
Goals
Over 0.5 goals90%fair 1.11
Over 1.5 goals67%fair 1.50
Over 2.5 goals40%2.59
Over 3.5 goals20%fair 5.03
Over 4.5 goals8%fair 12.05
Under 1.5 goals33%fair 3.00
Under 2.5 goals60%1.60
Under 3.5 goals80%fair 1.25
BTTS
Both teams to score48%2.08
Not both teams to score53%1.82
Halves
First-half goal64%fair 1.56
Over 1.5 first-half goals28%fair 3.64
Second-half goal72%fair 1.40
Team goals
Gremio to score70%fair 1.42
Atletico-MG to score66%fair 1.52
Gremio clean sheet34%fair 2.94
Atletico-MG clean sheet30%fair 3.36
Gremio to win to nil31%fair 3.21
Atletico-MG to win to nil27%fair 3.65
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.02
Even number of goals51%fair 1.98
Most likely scores
1-113.2%
1-012.3%
0-110.9%
0-010.1%
2-18%
2-07.4%
Half-time / full-time
Gremio / Gremio22.6%
Draw / Draw18.7%
Atletico-MG / Atletico-MG18.4%
Draw / Gremio14.6%
Draw / Atletico-MG12.5%
Questions about Gremio vs Atletico-MG
Gremio or Atletico-MG: which side does the model back?
The model gives Gremio the best chance at 38%, with the draw at 32%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
What is the correct score prediction for Gremio vs Atletico-MG?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 13.2%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 40%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Gremio vs Atletico-MG both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 48%. Gremio find the net in 70% of simulated matches and Atletico-MG in 66%.
What time does Gremio vs Atletico-MG kick off?
Gremio vs Atletico-MG starts at 21:30 UTC on Sunday, 1 November 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.