Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC prediction

Our Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC prediction and pick

Philadelphia Union are the clear favourite in the Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC prediction, rated 67% to win this MLS match on Saturday, 7 November 2026. Toronto FC sit at 15% and the draw at 18%.

The goal expectancy is 3.69 in total, split 2.53 to Philadelphia Union and 1.16 to Toronto FC. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 71% and both teams to score 64%.

The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.

Our main pick is philadelphia Union to win at 67%. The best price in our comparison is 1.45 at Betwinner, which implies 69%, so the model sits 2 points below the market.

The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.

Philadelphia Union or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 85% chance, priced 1.13.

With the draw down at 18%, draw no bet costs little insurance and the 12 line keeps most of the win price.

Over the last 5 matches Philadelphia Union stand at 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Toronto FC show 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats in 5.

Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score

On the goal lines Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC reads 88% for over 1.5, 71% for over 2.5 and 50% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 30%.

The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 71%, best priced 1.38 at Melbet.

The chance of both teams scoring is 64%, built from Philadelphia Union scoring in 92% of runs and Toronto FC in 69%; clean sheets come at 31% for Philadelphia Union and 8% for Toronto FC.

Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 64%.

Correct score: 2-1 leads at 9.3%, then 2-0 at 8% and 3-1 at 7.8%.

Even the leading scoreline holds only 9.3% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.

Half-time / full-time: half-time Philadelphia Union, full-time Philadelphia Union is the top combination at 45%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 81%.