MLS
Round 30 Saturday, 17 October 2026
FT
New York Red BullsHomeLLWLL
0:2Half-time 0:1
Toronto FCAwayDWLWL582022
New York Red Bulls winDrawToronto FC win
MLS
Round 30 Saturday, 17 October 2026
FT
New York Red BullsHomeLLWLLToronto FCAwayDWLWL- Kick-off Sat 17 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.82 2.39 : 1.43
- Favourite
- 58% New York Red Bulls
- Over 2.5 goals
- 73% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 71% model chance
- Prices compared
- - awaiting lines
New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC betting odds by bookmaker
No bookmaker prices stored for this match yet.
No bookmaker lines are stored for this match yet. Prices appear once the feed carries them, usually within 48 hours of kick-off for the major competitions and the evening before for smaller ones.
58%
Our prediction
New York Red Bulls to win
1.71fair
Double chanceNew York Red Bulls or Toronto FC (no draw)
80% chance1.25fair
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
73% chance1.38fair
BTTSBoth teams to score
71% chance1.41fair
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
89% chance1.12fair
ScorelineCorrect score 2-1
9% chance11.11fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time New York Red Bulls, full-time New York Red Bulls
39% chance2.59fair
New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC prediction
Our New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC prediction and pick
The New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC prediction leans to New York Red Bulls: 58% against 22% for Toronto FC, with 20% left for the draw, in the MLS on Saturday, 17 October 2026.
Expected goals are 2.39 for New York Red Bulls and 1.43 for Toronto FC, a total of 3.82, which puts over 2.5 goals at 73% and both teams to score at 71%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
The pick for New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC is new York Red Bulls to win, a 58% chance. Bookmakers have not opened this line yet; the page shows the fair price until they do.
For a safer line, new York Red Bulls or Toronto FC (no draw) covers 80% of outcomes.
With the draw down at 20%, draw no bet costs little insurance and the 12 line keeps most of the win price.
Form check: New York Red Bulls have won 1 of their last 5 with 7 scored and 10 conceded, Toronto FC 2 of 5 scoring 10 and conceding 11.
New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 89%, over 2.5 at 73%, over 3.5 at 53%; under 2.5 is 28% and under 3.5 is 47%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 73%.
Both teams to score is 71%: New York Red Bulls find the net in 91% of simulated matches and Toronto FC in 76%. New York Red Bulls keep a clean sheet 24% of the time and Toronto FC 9%.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 71%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (7.5%) and 3-1 (7.1%).
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
Half-time / full-time: half-time New York Red Bulls, full-time New York Red Bulls is the top combination at 39%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 82%.
All markets, New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 58% / 20% / 22% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
New York Red Bulls to win58%fair 1.71
Draw20%fair 5.03
Toronto FC to win22%fair 4.63
New York Red Bulls, draw no bet73%fair 1.37
Toronto FC, draw no bet27%fair 3.70
Double chance
New York Red Bulls or draw78%fair 1.28
Toronto FC or draw42%fair 2.41
New York Red Bulls or Toronto FC (no draw)80%fair 1.25
Goals
Over 0.5 goals98%fair 1.02
Over 1.5 goals89%fair 1.12
Over 2.5 goals73%fair 1.38
Over 3.5 goals53%fair 1.89
Over 4.5 goals34%fair 2.98
Under 1.5 goals11%fair 9.43
Under 2.5 goals28%fair 3.64
Under 3.5 goals47%fair 2.13
BTTS
Both teams to score71%fair 1.41
Not both teams to score29%fair 3.41
Halves
First-half goal82%fair 1.22
Over 1.5 first-half goals51%fair 1.95
Second-half goal88%fair 1.14
Team goals
New York Red Bulls to score91%fair 1.10
Toronto FC to score76%fair 1.31
New York Red Bulls clean sheet24%fair 4.18
Toronto FC clean sheet9%fair 10.87
New York Red Bulls to win to nil22%fair 4.55
Toronto FC to win to nil8%fair 11.90
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
2-19%
1-17.5%
3-17.1%
2-26.4%
2-06.3%
1-25.4%
Half-time / full-time
New York Red Bulls / New York Red Bulls38.6%
Draw / New York Red Bulls16%
Toronto FC / Toronto FC12.7%
Draw / Draw9.3%
Draw / Toronto FC7.3%
Questions about New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC
Who will win New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC?
The model gives New York Red Bulls the best chance at 58%, with the draw at 20%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC correct score: what does the model say?
2-1 is the most likely scoreline at 9%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 73% backs the same picture with less variance.
Is BTTS likely in New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC?
The BTTS yes line is rated 71%. New York Red Bulls find the net in 91% of simulated matches and Toronto FC in 76%.
When is New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC and where is the result shown?
New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC starts at 23:30 UTC on Saturday, 17 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.