Primera División RFEF - Group 1
PontevedraHomeLWWLD
Sat 7 Nov
UD OurenseAwayWLLLW552718
Pontevedra winDrawUD Ourense win
PontevedraHomeLWWLDUD OurenseAwayWLLLW- Kick-off Sat 7 Nov
- Expected goals
- 2.21 1.48 : 0.73
- Favourite
- 55% Pontevedra
- Over 2.5 goals
- 38% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 40% model chance
- Prices compared
- - awaiting lines
Best odds for Pontevedra vs UD Ourense
No bookmaker prices stored for this match yet.
Bookmakers have not opened Pontevedra vs UD Ourense yet. The lines usually arrive within two days of kick-off, and the markets above show the fair price from the model until then.
55%
Our prediction
Pontevedra to win
1.81fair
Double chancePontevedra or draw
82% chance1.22fair
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
62% chance1.61fair
BTTSNot both teams to score
60% chance1.66fair
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
65% chance1.54fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-0
16% chance6.17fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Pontevedra, full-time Pontevedra
34% chance2.98fair
Pontevedra vs UD Ourense prediction
Our Pontevedra vs UD Ourense prediction and pick
The Pontevedra vs UD Ourense prediction leans to Pontevedra: 55% against 18% for UD Ourense, with 27% left for the draw, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, 7 November 2026.
The goal expectancy is 2.21 in total, split 1.48 to Pontevedra and 0.73 to UD Ourense. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 38% and both teams to score 40%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Our main pick is pontevedra to win at 55%. No bookmaker has priced it yet, so the fair price from the model is shown instead.
For a safer line, pontevedra or draw covers 82% of outcomes.
Form check: Pontevedra have won 2 of their last 5 with 4 scored and 5 conceded, UD Ourense 2 of 5 scoring 3 and conceding 8.
Under 2.5, both teams to score and the scoreline in Pontevedra vs UD Ourense
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 65%, over 2.5 at 38%, over 3.5 at 18%; under 2.5 is 62% and under 3.5 is 82%.
Under 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 62%.
The chance of both teams scoring is 40%, built from Pontevedra scoring in 77% of runs and UD Ourense in 52%; clean sheets come at 48% for Pontevedra and 23% for UD Ourense.
Not both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 60%.
Correct score: 1-0 leads at 16.2%, then 2-0 at 12% and 1-1 at 11.9%.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Pontevedra, full-time Pontevedra is the top combination at 34%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 63%.
Every market rated for Pontevedra vs UD Ourense
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Pontevedra vs UD Ourense, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Pontevedra to win55%fair 1.81
Draw27%fair 3.77
UD Ourense to win18%fair 5.49
Pontevedra, draw no bet75%fair 1.33
UD Ourense, draw no bet25%fair 4.03
Double chance
Pontevedra or draw82%fair 1.22
UD Ourense or draw45%fair 2.24
Pontevedra or UD Ourense (no draw)74%fair 1.36
Goals
Over 0.5 goals89%fair 1.12
Over 1.5 goals65%fair 1.54
Over 2.5 goals38%fair 2.65
Over 3.5 goals18%fair 5.46
Over 4.5 goals7%fair 13.51
Under 1.5 goals35%fair 2.84
Under 2.5 goals62%fair 1.61
Under 3.5 goals82%fair 1.22
BTTS
Both teams to score40%fair 2.52
Not both teams to score60%fair 1.66
Halves
First-half goal63%fair 1.59
Over 1.5 first-half goals26%fair 3.82
Second-half goal70%fair 1.42
Team goals
Pontevedra to score77%fair 1.30
UD Ourense to score52%fair 1.93
Pontevedra clean sheet48%fair 2.07
UD Ourense clean sheet23%fair 4.39
Pontevedra to win to nil44%fair 2.26
UD Ourense to win to nil17%fair 5.99
Odd or even
Odd number of goals49%fair 2.02
Even number of goals51%fair 1.98
Most likely scores
1-016.2%
2-012%
1-111.9%
0-011%
2-18.8%
0-18%
Half-time / full-time
Pontevedra / Pontevedra33.6%
Draw / Pontevedra19.5%
Draw / Draw18.3%
UD Ourense / UD Ourense9.8%
Draw / UD Ourense7.7%
Questions about Pontevedra vs UD Ourense
Who will win Pontevedra vs UD Ourense?
The model gives Pontevedra the best chance at 55%, with the draw at 27%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
What scoreline is most likely in Pontevedra vs UD Ourense?
1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 16.2%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 38% backs the same picture with less variance.
Is BTTS likely in Pontevedra vs UD Ourense?
The BTTS yes line is rated 40%. Pontevedra find the net in 77% of simulated matches and UD Ourense in 52%.
What time does Pontevedra vs UD Ourense kick off?
Pontevedra vs UD Ourense starts at 15:30 UTC on Saturday, 7 November 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.