Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Mérida ADHomeWWWDL
Sun 8 Nov
Athletic Club IIAwayLDLLW432433
Mérida AD winDrawAthletic Club II win
Mérida ADHomeWWWDLAthletic Club IIAwayLDLLW- Kick-off Sun 8 Nov
- Expected goals
- 3.00 1.61 : 1.39
- Favourite
- 43% Mérida AD
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 60% model chance
- Prices compared
- - awaiting lines
Best odds for Mérida AD vs Athletic Club II
No bookmaker prices stored for this match yet.
No bookmaker lines are stored for this match yet. Prices appear once the feed carries them, usually within 48 hours of kick-off for the major competitions and the evening before for smaller ones.
76%
Our prediction
Mérida AD or Athletic Club II (no draw)
1.32fair
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
58% chance1.73fair
BTTSBoth teams to score
60% chance1.66fair
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
80% chance1.25fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
11% chance9.01fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Mérida AD, full-time Mérida AD
26% chance3.86fair
First halfFirst-half goal
74% chance1.35fair
Mérida AD vs Athletic Club II prediction
Mérida AD vs Athletic Club II prediction and best bet
Mérida AD are marginally ahead in the Mérida AD vs Athletic Club II prediction, rated 43% to win this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 match on Sunday, 8 November 2026. Athletic Club II sit at 33% and the draw at 24%.
The goal expectancy is 3.00 in total, split 1.61 to Mérida AD and 1.39 to Athletic Club II. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 58% and both teams to score 60%.
One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.
The pick for Mérida AD vs Athletic Club II is mérida AD or Athletic Club II (no draw), a 76% chance. No bookmaker has priced it yet, so the fair price from the model is shown instead.
Over the last 5 matches Mérida AD stand at 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats; Athletic Club II show 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats in 5.
How many goals in Mérida AD vs Athletic Club II? Lines, BTTS and scorelines
Under 2.5 goals is rated 42% and under 3.5 65%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 80% and over 2.5 at 58%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 58%.
BTTS yes stands at 60%. Mérida AD score in 80% of simulations against a 20% clean sheet for Athletic Club II; Athletic Club II score in 75% while Mérida AD shut them out 25% of the time.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 60%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Mérida AD vs Athletic Club II: 1-1 (11.1%), 2-1 (9%) and 1-0 (8%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 11.1% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Mérida AD, full-time Mérida AD leads at 26%. A goal before the break is rated 74%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market rated for Mérida AD vs Athletic Club II
The grid built from 1.61 and 1.39 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Mérida AD to win43%fair 2.33
Draw24%fair 4.15
Athletic Club II to win33%fair 3.03
Mérida AD, draw no bet57%fair 1.77
Athletic Club II, draw no bet44%fair 2.30
Double chance
Mérida AD or draw67%fair 1.49
Athletic Club II or draw57%fair 1.75
Mérida AD or Athletic Club II (no draw)76%fair 1.32
Goals
Over 0.5 goals95%fair 1.05
Over 1.5 goals80%fair 1.25
Over 2.5 goals58%fair 1.73
Over 3.5 goals35%fair 2.83
Over 4.5 goals19%fair 5.41
Under 1.5 goals20%fair 5.03
Under 2.5 goals42%fair 2.36
Under 3.5 goals65%fair 1.55
BTTS
Both teams to score60%fair 1.66
Not both teams to score40%fair 2.51
Halves
First-half goal74%fair 1.35
Over 1.5 first-half goals39%fair 2.56
Second-half goal81%fair 1.24
Team goals
Mérida AD to score80%fair 1.25
Athletic Club II to score75%fair 1.33
Mérida AD clean sheet25%fair 4.02
Athletic Club II clean sheet20%fair 5.00
Mérida AD to win to nil23%fair 4.37
Athletic Club II to win to nil18%fair 5.43
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-111.1%
2-19%
1-08%
1-27.7%
0-16.9%
2-06.5%
Half-time / full-time
Mérida AD / Mérida AD25.9%
Athletic Club II / Athletic Club II19.4%
Draw / Mérida AD14.1%
Draw / Draw13.5%
Draw / Athletic Club II11.4%
Questions about Mérida AD vs Athletic Club II
Mérida AD or Athletic Club II: which side does the model back?
The model gives Mérida AD the best chance at 43%, with the draw at 24%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
Mérida AD vs Athletic Club II correct score: what does the model say?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 11.1%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 58%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Mérida AD vs Athletic Club II both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 60%. Mérida AD find the net in 80% of simulated matches and Athletic Club II in 75%.
When do Mérida AD play Athletic Club II?
Kick-off is 17:15 UTC on Sunday, 8 November 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.