Primera División RFEF - Group 1
UD OurenseHomeWLLLW
1:0Half-time 0:0
Cultural LeonesaAwayWDLWL222850
UD Ourense winDrawCultural Leonesa win
UD OurenseHomeWLLLWCultural LeonesaAwayWDLWL- Kick-off Sun 1 Nov
- Expected goals
- 2.35 0.89 : 1.46
- Favourite
- 50% Cultural Leonesa
- Over 2.5 goals
- 41% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 46% model chance
- Prices compared
- 5 in the odds table
UD Ourense vs Cultural Leonesa betting odds by bookmaker
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 3.90 | 3.24 | 1.85 | 2.06 | 1.65 | 1.88 | 1.81 | Bet |
 22Bet | 4.06 | 3.34 | 1.91 | 2.22 | 1.62 | 2.02 | 1.74 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 4.20 | 3.15 | 1.85 | 2.16 | 1.63 | 1.92 | 1.73 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 4.06 | 3.34 | 1.91 | 2.22 | 1.62 | 2.02 | 1.74 | Bet |
 Melbet | 4.06 | 3.34 | 1.91 | 2.22 | 1.62 | 2.02 | 1.74 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Cultural Leonesa to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the UD Ourense vs Cultural Leonesa prediction: UD Ourense 4.20 (BC.Game), draw 3.34 (22Bet), Cultural Leonesa 1.91 (22Bet).
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 94.2%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 2.22 (Melbet) and under 2.5 1.65 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 2.02 (Melbet) and no 1.81 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
50%
Our prediction
Cultural Leonesa to win
Double chanceCultural Leonesa or draw
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
59% chance1.65
BTTSNot both teams to score
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
68% chance1.47fairLost
ScorelineCorrect score 0-1
14% chance7.19fairLost
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Cultural Leonesa, full-time Cultural Leonesa
31% chance3.28fairLost
UD Ourense vs Cultural Leonesa odds movement
UD Ourense win4.20unchanged
Draw3.34-0.11
Cultural Leonesa win1.91-0.01
Over 2.5 goals2.22unchanged
Under 2.5 goals1.65-0.02
Best price in the comparison at each refresh since the match was first priced on 1 Nov, 23:58 UTC. A shortening price means money has come for that outcome.
UD Ourense vs Cultural Leonesa prediction
UD Ourense vs Cultural Leonesa prediction and best bet
UD Ourense vs Cultural Leonesa prediction for the Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, 1 November 2026: the model makes Cultural Leonesa a narrow favourite at 50%, with the draw at 28% and UD Ourense at 22%.
Expected goals are 0.89 for UD Ourense and 1.46 for Cultural Leonesa, a total of 2.35, which puts over 2.5 goals at 41% and both teams to score at 46%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
Our main pick is cultural Leonesa to win at 50%. The best price in our comparison is 1.91 at 22Bet, which implies 52%, so the model sits 2 points below the market.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on UD Ourense vs Cultural Leonesa.
For a safer line, cultural Leonesa or draw covers 78% of outcomes at 1.21.
Form check: UD Ourense have won 2 of their last 5 with 3 scored and 8 conceded, Cultural Leonesa 2 of 5 scoring 7 and conceding 5.
Under 2.5, both teams to score and the scoreline in UD Ourense vs Cultural Leonesa
On the goal lines UD Ourense vs Cultural Leonesa reads 68% for over 1.5, 41% for over 2.5 and 21% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 59%.
The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 59%, best priced 1.65 at 1xBet.
Both teams to score is 46%: UD Ourense find the net in 59% of simulated matches and Cultural Leonesa in 77%. UD Ourense keep a clean sheet 23% of the time and Cultural Leonesa 41%.
Correct score: 0-1 leads at 13.9%, then 1-1 at 12.4% and 0-2 at 10.2%.
With the top scoreline at 13.9%, correct score stays a long-odds market for UD Ourense vs Cultural Leonesa; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Cultural Leonesa, full-time Cultural Leonesa is the top combination at 31%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 65%.
All markets, UD Ourense vs Cultural Leonesa
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 22% / 28% / 50% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
UD Ourense to win22%4.20
Draw28%3.34
Cultural Leonesa to win50%1.91
UD Ourense, draw no bet31%fair 3.25
Cultural Leonesa, draw no bet69%fair 1.45
Double chance
UD Ourense or draw50%1.83
Cultural Leonesa or draw78%1.21
UD Ourense or Cultural Leonesa (no draw)73%1.30
Goals
Over 0.5 goals91%fair 1.10
Over 1.5 goals68%fair 1.47
Over 2.5 goals41%2.22
Over 3.5 goals21%fair 4.74
Over 4.5 goals9%fair 11.11
Under 1.5 goals32%fair 3.13
Under 2.5 goals59%1.65
Under 3.5 goals79%fair 1.27
BTTS
Both teams to score46%2.02
Not both teams to score54%1.81
Halves
First-half goal65%fair 1.53
Over 1.5 first-half goals29%fair 3.51
Second-half goal73%fair 1.38
Team goals
UD Ourense to score59%fair 1.70
Cultural Leonesa to score77%fair 1.30
UD Ourense clean sheet23%fair 4.31
Cultural Leonesa clean sheet41%fair 2.43
UD Ourense to win to nil21%fair 4.88
Cultural Leonesa to win to nil38%fair 2.65
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.02
Even number of goals51%fair 1.98
Most likely scores
0-113.9%
1-112.4%
0-210.2%
0-09.5%
1-29%
1-08.5%
Half-time / full-time
Cultural Leonesa / Cultural Leonesa30.5%
Draw / Cultural Leonesa17.8%
Draw / Draw17.5%
UD Ourense / UD Ourense12.6%
Draw / UD Ourense9.2%
Questions about UD Ourense vs Cultural Leonesa
Who is favourite in UD Ourense vs Cultural Leonesa?
The model gives Cultural Leonesa the best chance at 50%, with the draw at 28%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
What scoreline is most likely in UD Ourense vs Cultural Leonesa?
0-1 is the most likely scoreline at 13.9%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 41% backs the same picture with less variance.
UD Ourense vs Cultural Leonesa both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 46%. UD Ourense find the net in 59% of simulated matches and Cultural Leonesa in 77%.
When do UD Ourense play Cultural Leonesa?
UD Ourense vs Cultural Leonesa starts at 15:30 UTC on Sunday, 1 November 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.